SPCX Needs $160 to Break HigherSPCXUSDTPERP PERPETUAL MIX CONTRACTBITGET:SPCXUSDT.Pzenthena00 SPCX Needs $160 Before the Nasdaq-100 Catalyst Can Matter SpaceX is only days away from joining the Nasdaq-100, with the inclusion scheduled for July 7. That alone is expected to trigger roughly $4.3 billion in passive buying as ETFs and index funds rebalance their portfolios. Under normal circumstances, that's exactly the kind of catalyst that should support higher prices. What caught my attention, though, is that the market still hasn't fully committed to the bullish narrative. Despite a catalyst that could force billions of dollars into the stock, SPCX continues trading below a major reclaim zone. To me, that says this isn't just a battle between buyers and sellers. It's a battle between mechanical index buying and investors questioning whether the current valuation already reflects years of future growth. That's why I'm paying much more attention to the chart than the headlines. The Setup After the recent correction, buyers have managed to defend the liquidity zone around $150 while gradually pushing price back above the 9 EMA and 20 EMA. That's an encouraging first step, but I don't think it's enough to confirm a reversal. The level that matters most is $160.44. This area combines the previous order block, the declining 50 EMA and the first meaningful supply zone since the selloff began. If buyers can't reclaim it with a multi-billion-dollar catalyst only days away, I'd question how much conviction actually exists behind the current recovery. Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance • $160.44 - Order block, 50 EMA and my primary reclaim level. • $170-$176 - Premium supply zone and my first upside target if $160 is reclaimed. Support • $150 - Liquidity zone where buyers have repeatedly stepped in. • $145 - Next downside objective if support fails. My Scenarios Bullish scenario If SPCX closes above $160.44 and holds that level as support, I'd expect the upcoming Nasdaq-100 inclusion to reinforce bullish momentum rather than simply create a short-lived spike. In that case, the next area I'm watching is the $170-$176 supply zone. Bearish scenario If price gets rejected around $160 despite billions of dollars in expected passive inflows, I'd treat that as a warning that sellers are still overwhelming demand. A move back below $150 would invalidate my bullish thesis and increase the probability of another leg lower. My Trading Plan For me, the Nasdaq-100 inclusion isn't the trade. The market has known about this event for days, which means a lot of optimism may already be priced in. What matters now is whether buyers can actually convert that catalyst into a technical breakout. Until $160.44 is reclaimed, I'm staying patient. If buyers prove themselves above that level, I'll look for continuation toward the premium supply zone. If they fail, I'll continue respecting the broader trend rather than chasing a headline. Once confirmation appears, I'll likely execute the setup through Bitget CFDs, since it allows me to react to both bullish and bearish scenarios from a single account. Do you think the Nasdaq-100 inclusion will be enough to push SPCX through $160, or has the market already priced in the catalyst?