Gold View UpdateGold FuturesCOMEX_DL:GC1!trader_kyeolAs mentioned in the May 19th Gold post, the price reached exactly around the $4,000 per ounce level before bouncing. Looking at the price, one might feel there is now sufficient reason to expect an upward move. However, considering the following factors: -The possibility of a stronger dollar -The likelihood that market interest rates will remain high -The potential that the Fed's benchmark rate hikes won't end at just one or two more Given these headwinds, it may be difficult to sustain demand for gold, an asset that generates no cash flow. One might question: "If rates stay high or rise further due to inflation concerns, shouldn't demand for gold—a traditional inflation hedge—also increase?" You wouldn't be wrong. However, the core of the current situation is not the fear of a massive, sudden spike in inflation Instead, we must consider the entrenchment of current inflation levels (it isn't soaring, but it's failing to drop exactly to 2%), the rise in market interest rates, and the Fed's hawkish stance in response to all of this. (Regarding the possibility that the Fed's rate hikes won't end after one or two, I cover this in depth in the upcoming Bitcoin post, so please refer to that.) ______________________ Technical Analysis -Moving Averages The price broke down through the 60-week moving average, but the subsequent bounce hasn't been strong. -Divergence Although a daily bullish divergence appeared, after a minor bounce, the price is threatening the lows once again. -Wave Theory From an Elliott Wave perspective, it can be interpreted that the ABC correction is complete. Yet, the bounce remains weak. Conclusion Putting the macro and technical situations together, it seems reasonable to judge that the downtrend is still ongoing. I am leaving the door open for a continued decline down to the next major support zone at the $3,500 level.