EUR/USD Is a Seasonal Reversal Coming?EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEdgeTradingJourneyEUR/USD remains under significant bearish pressure after breaking below the descending channel that has guided price action since early May. The pair is currently trading around 1.1350, approaching a major daily demand zone located between 1.1250 and 1.1320. From a technical perspective, sellers remain in full control. The recent rejection from the 1.1600-1.1670 supply area confirmed the continuation of the bearish structure, producing a series of lower highs and lower lows. Momentum remains negative and there is currently no confirmed reversal signal. The Commitment of Traders report provides an interesting backdrop. Non-commercial traders remain net long EUR futures with 228,005 long contracts against 193,652 shorts, maintaining a net long exposure of approximately 34,000 contracts. However, the latest report showed a significant reduction in bullish positioning as long positions increased by only 8,441 contracts while shorts decreased by 11,980 contracts. This suggests speculative traders are becoming less aggressive in their euro bullish outlook. Looking at the USD Index COT data, large speculators remain heavily net long the Dollar. Non-commercial positions increased longs by 3,272 contracts while reducing shorts by 8,541 contracts, reinforcing the bullish dollar narrative currently dominating the market. Retail sentiment remains a contrarian bearish signal for EUR/USD. Approximately 74% of retail traders are positioned long EUR/USD, while only 26% are short. Historically, such an imbalance tends to favor further downside as retail traders continue attempting to catch the bottom. Seasonality also aligns with the bearish scenario. While June has historically produced modest gains for EUR/USD over the last 10, 15 and 20 years, the strongest seasonal period typically develops during July. This creates the possibility of a short-term corrective bounce from the current demand zone before the broader trend resumes. My preferred scenario is a continuation lower into the 1.1250-1.1320 daily demand zone. From there I will monitor price action closely for signs of exhaustion and potential accumulation. A corrective rally could then target 1.1450 and potentially 1.1600 before sellers re-enter the market. Key Levels: 🟢 Demand Zone: 1.1250 – 1.1320 🔴 Resistance 1: 1.1600 – 1.1620 🔴 Resistance 2: 1.1650 – 1.1670 🎯 Bearish Target: 1.1200 🎯 Bullish Rebound Target: 1.1450 – 1.1600