BTCUSD: Holiday-compressed jobs week: NFP Thu 7/2 is the binaryBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDIvanLabrieGM gentlemen, US and Iran agreed Sunday evening to halt strikes and meet this week (Axios, 6/28), after Iran pulled out of Sunday afternoon's technical talks citing Friday night's kinetic episode (Sirik explosions, IRIB-reported projectile hits on Qeshm Island, US CENTCOM strikes after Iran hit another commercial ship). The ceasefire is the relief. The piece that does not reset: Iran is now gating the Strait of Hormuz via a transit-permit regime, with Araqchi saying restoring pre-war traffic is Tehran's call alone. Funds piled net-short crude into the weekend on the de-escalation consensus (JKemp, 6/27), so the permit regime plus live strikes on shipping flips the 6/26 "barrels beat headlines" read back into a two-sided supply tape, and crowded positioning becomes the bigger risk than the headline. The week's macro spine is jobs, compressed by the July 4 holiday. NFP pulled forward to Thursday 7/2, US equity and bond markets close Friday 7/3, ISM Manufacturing Tuesday 7/1 sits on top of the sub-48 bearish-invalidation kill line (the growth crack that forces a Fed blink). Kashkari broke Warsh's no-telegraph silence to say publicly he's counting on a hike, a hawk filling the vacuum rather than Warsh telegraphing, so the regime call holds and the near-term read skews hawkish. December hike odds ~63%. BTC's weekly range-expansion-down signal fired 6/25 (fresh bear signal), the monthly objective is live, and the daily expired 6/27 with a sharp break re-firing it. Flip line $71,383, monthly stop $76,013, downside target $46-28K. Stance stays cash-heavy with the gold long-term-top short on (stop $4,775 untouched). Vol underpriced into the Warsh discretionary-Fed regime; own cheap optionality, not the directional crash bet. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.