QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 26 of 2026 (29-03 JUN/JUL)Invesco QQQ Trust Series IBATS:QQQUA_CAPITALQQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK Last Week's Recap None of the long scenarios from last week's Weekly Market Outlook were triggered early in the week. Our first long position was stopped out on Tuesday after the daily invalidation level was confirmed. In the Mid Week Update, however, we published an updated framework and, as outlined, Short Scenario 1 was triggered perfectly and delivered a strong profitable trade. Total trades on QQQ: 2 Trades | 1 Win | 1 Loss | Outcome: Decent Profit (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) UA CAPITAL LAST WEEK RECAP (WEEK OF JUNE 22–26) Week 25 of 2026 marked another deep green week for UA CAPITAL, extending our streak to 12 consecutive profitable weeks. We have now gone the entire year without a single red week. Markets began the week trading near all time highs with a bullish tone. Since the Risk Index was still signaling a risk on environment, our initial Weekly Market Outlook focused exclusively on long opportunities for both SPY and QQQ. We also had an important catalyst approaching, with both the MU earnings report and the PCE inflation data scheduled for later in the week. Our MU swing position had already been established two weeks earlier, and in the Weekly Market Outlook we explained that the position would likely be managed and closed around Wednesday or Thursday depending on price action. For the PCE release, we prepared three separate scenarios covering outcomes above expectations, in line with expectations, and below expectations. Each scenario included a clear execution plan and position management framework shared with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk. Our first long position from the Weekly Market Outlook was stopped out on Tuesday. At the same time, the Risk Index shifted aggressively from risk on into a short term bearish regime. Immediately after that transition, I notified the Trading Desk through our private chat that we had begun positioning for downside exposure across the major indices. On Wednesday, our Mid Week Update introduced a completely new trading framework. Short Scenario 1 was triggered almost perfectly, allowing us to short both SPY and QQQ through put options with excellent execution. Despite a positive premarket rally on Wednesday, the Risk Index algorithm had already shifted decisively into a short term bearish bias. Trading Desk members were warned to begin looking for short exposure while becoming significantly more selective with any new long positions. Once markets opened, Nasdaq futures dropped nearly 3%, where I was already carrying short futures exposure. My SPY put positions were closed after approximately a 6.5 point decline, while my QQQ puts were closed following roughly a 14.5 point move lower. Together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk, we generated profitable trades across both the futures and options markets during the selloff. Thursday brought another major opportunity as MU reported earnings. The July 24 $100 call options that I purchased for roughly $90 were sold around $266, generating an approximate 195% return. This entire swing trade, from entry through position management and exit, was shared live with the Trading Desk. Overall, the week demonstrated exactly why adaptability matters. Our initial long exposure early in the week was stopped as planned. Once the Risk Index detected the shift in market structure, we quickly transitioned into short exposure and captured strong profits across futures and options. Combined with the 195% return on the MU swing trade, it was another exceptional week for the Trading Desk. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term bearish bias. As a result, additional downside remains possible over the near term. However, the longer term structure continues to stay firmly risk on, meaning high probability buying opportunities may emerge once price reaches our predefined demand zones. Our objective this week is to capitalize on short term bearish momentum while remaining ready to shift back into swing longs once technical confirmation appears. Scenarios / Strategies Chop Zone The 725–709 range is currently defined as our primary Chop Zone. Within this area, I expect price to remain highly indecisive as buyers and sellers fight for control. Because false breakouts and poor risk-to-reward conditions become much more common inside this range, I do not intend to initiate new positions while price remains inside the Chop Zone. Short Scenario Trigger: A confirmed breakdown below the Chop Zone with a daily close below 709. Targets: 698 → 692.5 → 681 Invalidation: Daily close above 725. Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (692.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish candle close back above the zone. Targets: 703 → 709 → 720 Invalidation: Daily close below 681. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (663) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish candle close back above the zone. Targets: 673 → 681 → 692.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 653. Position Management Rules 1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1H candle close above or below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above or below the designated level. 2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. 3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade. 4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. 5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss. Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.