BITCOIN | A Memorandum of MisunderstandingBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTmoonyptoUS becomes the first country in the world to host a team at the FIFA World Cup and bоmb that team's country on the same day! It's been 12 days since the U.S Iran MOU was signed, but tensions continue to build. Over the weekend, the U.S launched retaliatory strikes after Iran attacked cargo ships earlier last week. Following several days of military exchanges, both sides have accused each other of breaching the 60 day ceasefire, putting this week's second round of talks at risk For now, both countries appear to be stepping back, but the situation remains unpredictable. Oil prices have held steady in the low $70s, suggesting markets still expect tensions to cool. At the same time, that relatively calm reaction leaves room for a sharp move higher if supply disruptions last longer than expected Crypto Volatility Picks Up Implied volatility continues to edge higher as traders buy downside protection, particularly July BTC puts in the 55k to 59k range. That isn't surprising with BTC and ETH trading just above key support levels around 58k and 1,500 Sentiment also remains under pressure. Ongoing concerns around MicroStrategy, continued outflows from spot BTC ETFs, and weakness in equities as investors question how much further the AI driven rally can run have all weighed on the market Even so, there are signs that not everyone is positioning defensively. Over the weekend, traders bought a sizeable amount of BTC 17JUL26 64k calls, suggesting some are looking for a rebound as BTC trades near the lower end of its recent range and markets head into a short but busy week Warsh in Focus July begins with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking at the ECB forum. Since Warsh has so far avoided giving clear forward guidance, markets will be watching Wednesday's remarks closely for clues about his policy outlook ahead of the Fed meeting later this month. Investors remain split on what's driving the recent inflation surprises. Some see supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz as a temporary factor. Others believe inflation pressures could prove more persistent, pointing to Apple's recent price increases, which the company linked to higher AI-related costs. Short Week, Thin Liquidity The week also brings several important economic releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Thursday. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for the holiday, while developments between the U.S. and Iran remain a key risk. With fewer traders in the market and geopolitical headlines still driving sentiment, volatility is likely to stay elevated, much like it did over the weekend. Key Events Tentative U.S-Iran talks Wednesday, 1 July Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks ISM Manufacturing PMI Thursday, 2 July Non Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate