GBP/USD holds steady ahead of Burnham Speech. DAX rises as tech rebounds, despite auto sector weakness.GBP/USD Holds Steady Ahead of Burnham SpeechGBP/USD is holding above 1.32 as investors await a closely watched speech from Andy Burnham, the likely next UK Prime Minister, for clues on his economic agenda and fiscal priorities.Burnham returned to Westminster this month and is, so far, the only declared candidate to replace Keir Starmer within weeks.For markets, the key issue is not the leadership change itself but what it could mean for fiscal policy. Investors remain sensitive to any suggestion of higher government borrowing given the UK’s already fragile public finances and elevated gilt yields.While few expect a repeat of the market turmoil seen during the Liz Truss administration, Burnham will need to convince investors that any plans to boost growth can be delivered within credible fiscal constraints. His choice of Chancellor could also prove important in shaping market confidence.Sterling has fallen around 1.7% this month, reflecting both domestic political uncertainty and broad U.S. dollar strength following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and last week’s hawkish Federal Reserve meeting.Markets have continued to increase expectations for another Fed rate hike this year after Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4%, its highest level in three years.Attention now turns to Thursday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could provide further insight into the strength of the labour market and whether the Fed is likely to tighten policy again. Fed Chair Kevin Walsh is also due to speak on Wednesday.GBP/USD Forecast – Technical AnalysisGBP/USD continues to trade below its falling trendline resistance and beneath both the 50 and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader bias tilted to the downside.The pair is testing support around the 1.3200–1.3250 zone.Sellers will look for a break below this area to expose the psychological 1.3000 level.Should support hold, buyers will need to reclaim 1.3250 before targeting resistance around 1.3335. A move above there would expose the 200-day SMA near 1.3400.DAX Rises as Tech Rebounds Despite Auto Sector WeaknessThe DAX has started the week on the front foot alongside its European peers as investors cautiously return to technology stocks following last week’s sell-off.Technology shares are leading the gains, with SAP rising almost 2%, while weakness in banks and automakers limits broader upside. BMW, Porsche and Volkswagen are all trading between 1% and 1.5% lower.Improving sentiment follows reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to suspend further attacks after a flare up in hostilities over the weekend, while negotiations on their memorandum of understanding continue this week.Oil prices remain at a 4-month low, down 20% in two weeks. This is beneficial for Germany, which is heavily reliant on imported energy.The easing in geopolitical tensions has helped stabilize broader risk sentiment and supported equities. However, gains remain measured as investors continue to assess whether the recent correction in AI-related stocks has further to run.Attention this week will also be on the ECB Sintra Economic Forum, where central bankers will update on the outlook for monetary policy and their respective economies.ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak later today and again on Wednesday. Eurozone consumer confidence figures will also be in focus, with expectations of a slight improvement to 94.3, up from 93.5.This week is also key for German data, with retail sales due tomorrow and German inflation data also coming through on Tuesday. CPI is expected to ease slightly to 2.5% from 2.6%.DAX Forecast – Technical AnalysisThe DAX continues to trade above its rising trendline and above both the 50 and 200-day SMAs, keeping the longer-term uptrend intact.The index has once again found support around the rising trendline and the 50-day SMA, reinforcing this area as an important technical floor.Buyers will look for a move above 24,800 to expose 25,000 and then 25,200, the June swing high. A break above these levels would bring 25,450 and fresh record highs into view.Should sellers break below the 50-day SMA near 24,600, attention would shift towards the 200-day SMA around 24,265 before the key support zone near 24,000.Original Post