RICHARD W. STEVENSON2026年6月23日Alan Greenspan, who in nearly two decades as chair of the Federal Reserve nurtured a long run of prosperity, navigated crises and was a powerful and polarizing force in shaping market-friendly policies, died Monday at his home in Washington. He was 100.艾伦·格林斯潘担任美联储主席近20年，呵护美国长期繁荣、驾驭多次危机，并以铁腕且极具争议性的方式塑造了亲市场政策，他于周一在华盛顿家中去世，享年100岁。The cause was complications of Parkinson’s disease, his wife, Andrea Mitchell, the chief Washington correspondent and chief foreign affairs correspondent for NBC News, said in a statement.他的妻子、NBC新闻首席华盛顿特派员兼首席外交事务记者安德莉亚·米切尔公布离世原因为帕金森病并发症。The preeminent economic policymaker of his time and arguably the most recognizable economist of any era, Greenspan led the central bank under four presidents of both parties from 1987 to 2006.格林斯潘是他那个时代最重要的经济决策者，也被广泛认为是史上最具知名度的经济学家。他于1987年至2006年间先后担任两党四位总统任内的美联储负责人。Much of his tenure coincided with a streak of affluence in which he stood as the embodiment of a triumphant, post-Cold War strain of American capitalism: optimistic, faithful in the power of markets to improve living standards, captivated by the power of technology and averse to regulation.他任期的大部分时间里，美国处于一段繁荣时期，在此期间他成为冷战后美式资本主义胜利的化身：乐观、笃信市场能改善生活水平、痴迷于技术的力量、厌恶监管。But the ideological stamp he put on policymaking came to be associated as well with the destructive consequences of forces that emerged on his watch, including deregulation of banking and Wall Street, the loss of American jobs to free trade and persistent concerns about bubbles in stock and housing prices.但他烙印在政策制定上的意识形态倾向也逐渐被认为与他任内催生的破坏性后果相关——包括银行和华尔街的去监管化、自由贸易导致的美国就业岗位流失，以及对股市与楼市泡沫的持续担忧。Even as Greenspan skillfully managed interest rates in a way that kept the economy humming along, he remained leery of confronting a danger he well recognized: that the low-inflation, easy-money environment he had helped create was putting the United States at risk by fueling unsustainable investment booms. And he remained reluctant to act as banks and investment firms adopted complex new trading techniques that would come to wreak great damage.尽管格林斯潘以娴熟手法调控利率使经济持续扩张，他却始终回避一个他清楚存在的危险：他参与营造的低通胀、宽松货币环境正在催生不可持续的投机热潮，将美国置于风险之中。而当银行和投资公司采用日后造成巨大破坏的复杂新型交易技术时，他也迟迟不愿介入。2005年6月芝加哥期货交易所的交易员。次年年初，格林斯潘卸任美联储主席职务，此后将大部分时间用于捍卫自己的政策遗产。At the Fed, he was successful at what he considered the central banker’s primary task of holding down inflation. He also helped the United States deal with periodic shocks, including a stock market crash just weeks after he took office, the near-meltdown of Asian financial markets a decade later and the aftereffects of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.在美联储，他成功完成了在他看来的央行首要任务——遏制通胀，并协助美国应对多次周期性冲击：上任仅数周遭遇股灾、十年后亚洲金融市场近乎崩盘，以及2001年“9·11”恐袭的冲击。Only after he stepped down in early 2006 — and especially following the crisis on Wall Street in 2008, the near-collapse of the mortgage market and the ensuing deep recession — were his legacy and philosophy challenged in a concerted way.直到2006年初卸任后——特别是经历2008年华尔街危机、房贷市场近乎崩溃及随之而来的深度衰退后，他的遗产与理念才遭到系统性质疑。By that point, one group of critics blamed him for not heading off a housing bubble by pushing interest rates higher. Another accused him of promoting a corrosive free-market fundamentalism that left the financial system to operate unchecked as it adopted increasingly risky practices.一些批评者指责他未通过加息预防楼市泡沫；还有一些人指控他宣扬腐蚀性自由市场原教旨主义，令金融体系在日益激进的风险操作中失控运行。His record — and the degree to which he deserves either the praise or the blame heaped on him — remains a subject of intense debate. There is no doubt that he was a pivotal figure during a period of immense ferment in the economy and deep ideological divides over how to manage it.他的功过——以及他应在多大程度上接受褒贬——至今仍是激烈辩论的话题。无可否认，他是美国经济剧烈变动期的关键人物，而那个时代围绕如何治理经济亦深陷意识形态分歧。格林斯潘的功与过、究竟该承受多大程度的赞扬或指责至今仍是一个争论激烈的话题。 Wally McNamee/Corbis, via Getty ImagesAt the peak of his fame, as the economy boomed in the late 1990s, his merest phrase could send the markets sharply up or down, and his face, behind thick glasses, was as familiar as any movie star’s.上世纪90年代末经济繁荣巅峰期，他声望如日中天，一言一行皆可引发市场剧烈波动；他那副厚镜片后的面孔就像电影明星一样家喻户晓。In public, he often spoke in an elliptical jargon that even his fellow economists had trouble deciphering.公开场合他常以晦涩含糊的术语发言，连同行经济学家都难以参透。Behind the scenes in Washington, Greenspan was a master of the political power game. Schooled by his experiences as a policy adviser to Richard Nixon’s 1968 presidential campaign and his role as President Gerald Ford’s chief economist, he developed into a wily operator who skillfully protected the Fed’s independence while shaping the agendas of successive presidents and steering legislation on Capitol Hill.在华盛顿的幕后，格林斯潘是政治权力游戏的宗师。早年他曾担任尼克松1968年竞选政策顾问及福特总统首席经济学家，这使他磨炼成老练操盘手——既巧妙维护美联储独立性，又塑造历任总统议程，推动国会立法。His predecessor, Paul A. Volcker, had established that the central bank could hold off political pressure for lower interest rates with a tight-money strategy in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the process, Volcker gave the Fed tremendous credibility in the financial markets and bequeathed to Greenspan plenty of room to shape policy in Washington.他的前任保罗·沃尔克在20世纪70年代末和80年代初证明，央行可以通过紧缩货币政策来抵御来自政治层面的降息压力。在此过程中，沃尔克为美联储在金融市场赢得了极高的信誉，也为格林斯潘在华盛顿制定政策留下了很大的空间。Greenspan used his influence shrewdly on issues that, strictly speaking, went beyond his mandate at the Fed, weighing in regularly to shape policy on taxes, the budget deficit and trade. A Republican with strong libertarian leanings — in his younger days he was an acolyte of Ayn Rand, and he was appointed to the Fed by President Ronald Reagan — he nonetheless managed to infuriate Republicans as well as Democrats even as he won reappointment from presidents of both parties.格林斯潘将其影响力巧妙地延伸至严格意义上超越美联储授权的事务，频繁就制定税收、预算赤字和贸易政策表态。身为带强烈自由意志主义倾向的共和党人——青年时曾是安·兰德的追随者，由里根总统提名入主美联储，他虽然接连获得两党总统的连任提名，但两党人士都曾对他大为不满。1974年的格林斯潘，当时美国不仅正经历“水门事件”的政治冲击，还面临油价飙升和通胀高企的经济冲击。Alan Greenspan worked all the angles, cultivating allies across the aisle and at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.艾伦·格林斯潘四面出击，从国会两党到白宫，都有他的盟友。He dated Barbara Walters of ABC News in the late 1970s. In 1997, he married Mitchell, who by his account never entirely forgave him for discussing antitrust policy on their first date many years earlier; their wedding was presided over by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Mitchell is Greenspan’s only immediate survivor.70年代末他曾与ABC新闻的芭芭拉·沃尔特斯交往；1997年与米切尔结婚——据他所言，米切尔从未完全原谅他首次约会大谈反垄断政策。婚礼由鲁思·巴德·金斯伯格大法官主持。米切尔是他唯一在世的直系亲属。He was an avid tennis player, picking the game up in earnest on the White House court while serving in the Ford administration and pursuing it in spirited competition well into his 80s against a succession of Treasury secretaries and senior officials from both parties.他是狂热的网球爱好者，在福特政府任职时曾在白宫球场认真练球，此后数十年常与历届财长及两党高官激战，一直打到80多岁。He eschewed formulas and rules other central bankers often relied upon in favor of a more intuitive approach based on deep analysis of data about decisions being made by businesses, consumers and investors.他摒弃其他央行行长依赖的公式与规则，倾向于凭直觉——建立在对企业、消费者及投资者决策的深层数据分析之上——制定政策。Alan Greenspan was born on March 6, 1926, in New York City. He was the only child of Herbert and Rose (Goldsmith) Greenspan. His parents divorced when he was 5, and he was raised by his mother in the Washington Heights section of Manhattan.艾伦·格林斯潘1926年3月6日生于纽约市，是赫伯特与罗斯·格林斯潘的独子（其母旧姓戈德史密斯）。他五岁时父母离异，母亲在曼哈顿华盛顿高地将他抚养长大。With the enthusiastic encouragement of his mother, he became an accomplished musician in his teenage years. After graduating from George Washington High School, he went on to the Juilliard School and spent several years playing saxophone in a swing band.在母亲鼓励下，青少年时他已成为一名出色的音乐人。自乔治·华盛顿高中毕业后，他入读茱莉亚学院，在一支摇摆爵士乐队中吹奏萨克斯管多年。During the band’s gigs, Greenspan would spend breaks reading books he had borrowed from the library. “And one day I got a book out on business, finance or something on the stock market,” he said in a 1989 interview with The New York Times Magazine, “and I found it really fascinating.”他常在演出间隙阅读从图书馆借的书。“有一天借了本商业、金融或股市相关的书，”1989年他对《纽约时报杂志》说，“发现真的特别迷人。”Recognizing that economics might prove a more fruitful field for him than music, Greenspan left Juilliard and entered New York University, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in 1948 and a master’s in 1950, both in economics. He started work on his doctorate at Columbia University, where he studied under Arthur Burns, who would later become Fed chair. Greenspan eventually received a doctorate from NYU in 1977.他意识到经济学可能比音乐更有前景，于是离开茱莉亚入读纽约大学，分别在1948年和1950年获得经济学学士和硕士学位、随后开始在哥伦比亚大学攻读博士，师从日后成为美联储主席的亚瑟·伯恩斯。他最终在1977年获纽约大学博士学位。1998年，格林斯潘与他的妻子、记者安德莉亚·米切尔在华盛顿的英国大使馆。Greenspan was married in 1952 to Joan Mitchell (later Joan Mitchell Blumenthal), a painter and writer; the marriage ended after a year.1952年，他与画家兼作家琼·米切尔（后改名琼·米切尔·布鲁门塔尔）结婚，婚姻维持约一年。His specialty was forecasting, built around intense study of arcane statistics rather than grand theories. As he was building a professional reputation during the 1950s, Greenspan was also developing an intense free-market philosophy, one that was heavily influenced by Ayn Rand, whose novels espoused laissez-faire capitalism built around a “rational selfishness,” or the idea that society functions best when individuals pursue their self-interest.他的专长是预测，其依据是对晦涩的统计数据的深入研究，而非宏大理论。1950年代，随着职业声望日重，他也发展出一种强烈的自由市场哲学，深受安·兰德影响——其小说宣扬以“理性自私”为核心的放任资本主义，即相信人人为己，社会才能实现最优运转。Through his first wife, Greenspan met Rand in 1952 and soon became part of her inner circle, spending hours debating the relationships among individuals, governments and markets.格林斯潘通过首任妻子在1952年结识安·兰德，并进入其核心圈子，他们花了大量时间探讨个人、政府与市场的关系。Greenspan first got involved in politics in 1967, when he signed on as an adviser to Nixon’s presidential campaign, an experience that exposed him to the trade-offs between ideological principle and winning campaigns. In 1974, shortly before Nixon resigned in the Watergate scandal, Greenspan was named chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, a post he took up just after Ford took office, a period when the nation was enduring not just the political shock of Watergate but also the economic shock of soaring oil prices and roaring inflation.1967年初涉政界、担任尼克松竞选顾问时，他体会到意识形态原则与胜选博弈间的取舍。1974年，就在尼克松因水门事件辞职前不久，格林斯潘被任命为白宫经济顾问委员会主席。他在福特就职后上任，彼时美国正经受水门政治震荡与油价飙升、通胀肆虐的经济冲击。After Ford’s loss to Jimmy Carter in 1976, Greenspan remained active in Republican politics.1976年福特败选卡特后，格林斯潘仍活跃于共和党政治圈。After Reagan’s election as president, Greenspan was handed the sensitive job of heading a commission to keep the Social Security system from running out of money. In 1983, the commission recommended a mix of benefit cuts and tax increases. Given the real danger that Social Security would soon be unable to meet its obligations, most of the recommendations were adopted by Congress, and Greenspan’s stock in Washington went up.里根当选后，格林斯潘受命领导一个委员会，致力于避免社保系统资金枯竭；1983年他提出了结合福利削减与增税的建议，鉴于社保面临迫在眉睫的兑付危机，大部分建议被国会采纳，格林斯潘在华盛顿声望大涨。As early as 1986, there was speculation in Washington and on Wall Street that Greenspan would succeed Volcker as Federal Reserve chair should Volcker not be nominated for a third four-year term in 1987. When Volcker decided to step down, the Reagan administration viewed Greenspan as the obvious choice.早在1986年，华盛顿与华尔街就已猜测，若沃尔克未能获第三个四年任期的提名，格林斯潘将接任美联储主席；沃尔克决定卸任后，里根政府视其为不二人选。On Aug. 3, 1987, Greenspan’s nomination was approved by the Senate on a 91-2 vote, and eight days later he was sworn in as the Federal Reserve’s 13th chair.1987年8月3日，参议院91:2通过对格林斯潘的提名，八天后他宣誓就任美联储第13任主席。On Jan. 31, 2006, at 79, Greenspan engineered a small rise in interest rates at a Fed policy-setting session, his last act in office. A few hours later, the Senate confirmed his successor, Ben Bernanke. Greenspan departed with a souvenir — his chair from the central bank’s vast boardroom — and what seemed at the time to be the likelihood of a secure legacy.2006年1月31日，79岁的格林斯潘在美联储议息会议上最后一次小幅加息，成为其任内谢幕之作。数小时后参议院确认继任者本·伯南克。格林斯潘带走了一件纪念品——他在央行大会议厅的椅子——以及当时看似稳固的历史评价。Richard W. Stevenson是时报华盛顿分社社长，在时报担任记者和编辑长达40年。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。