The Bitcoin/S&P 500 ratio: a key indicator to watchBTCUSD/SPXBITSTAMP:BTCUSD/SPCFD:SPXSwissquoteIn my recent analyses published on TradingView, I have explained that the price of Bitcoin continues to follow its four-year cycle remarkably well, providing strong visibility into its future trend. Three years of bullish trend followed by one year of a cyclical bear market: this recurring pattern revolves around the halving event, which cuts Bitcoin production in half every four years through a reduction in mining rewards. The year 2026 is a cyclical bear market year for Bitcoin. This bear market began on October 6 from the level of $126,000. Historically, the average duration of a cyclical Bitcoin bear market is around 12 months, although the final bottoming phase usually begins earlier and can last for several months. In other words, the final cyclical bottoming phase for BTC is expected between this summer and the very beginning of next autumn. First, I invite you to review my latest Bitcoin analyses by consulting my publication history and following the Swissquote account, where I publish daily on TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/broker/Swissquote/publications-ideas/ In this new analysis, I will highlight the technical and timing signals provided by the BTC/S&P 500 ratio, which measures the relative strength of Bitcoin compared to the S&P 500 index. This ratio is particularly important for identifying both cyclical tops and cyclical bottoms in BTC/USD. It also follows a recurring pattern of three-year bull markets and one-year bear market phases. Historically, the bearish phase has generally retraced 78.6% of the previous three-year bullish advance. This 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is now approaching and could be tested this summer, potentially validating the cyclical bottom zone for Bitcoin. It is also worth noting that a potential bullish price/momentum divergence (using the RSI technical indicator) is currently developing, similar to what occurred during the final stages of previous bear markets in 2018 and 2022. From a timing perspective, by July or August this BTC/SPX ratio will have completed approximately 12 months of bear market conditions, which corresponds to the average duration observed in previous cycles. The chart below displays the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the Bitcoin/S&P 500 ratio. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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