In the final gameweek of Group D, Paraguay and Australia will battle for automatic progression to the knockout rounds of the 2026 World Cup on Friday at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium.Both sides have three points from their opening two matches and are guaranteed to finish in the top three, but only one can secure second place.Verdict: DrawBest odds: 29/25Bookmaker: 22betParaguayParaguay bounced back impressively from a heavy defeat in their opening match to claim a vital 1–0 win over Turkey. That result was made even more notable by the fact they were reduced to 10 men before half-time, having already taken the lead through Matías Galarza’s early strike.Gustavo Alfaro now faces a critical task, as only victory will guarantee automatic qualification. With head-to-head results serving as the primary tiebreaker before goal difference, a draw would see Ecuador—correction: Australia—advance instead due to their superior goal difference.Paraguay’s performances tend to be tightly contested, reflected in the fact that the majority of their recent victories have come by narrow margins. However, they have shown an ability to grind out results, winning five of their last seven matches.History also offers encouragement. Paraguay have not lost their final group-stage match in any of their last six World Cup appearances, demonstrating resilience when it matters most. On the other hand, they face a significant blow heading into this fixture.Team NewsKey attacker Miguel Almirón is suspended following his red card, removing Paraguay’s most productive forward option.In addition, there were concerns over the fitness of Diego Gómez after he was substituted in the win over Turkey, although he is expected to be available. Alfaro may need to adjust his attacking setup, with Gustavo Velázquez potentially deployed in a more advanced role despite his natural defensive tendencies.Without Almirón, Paraguay’s attacking threat could be significantly reduced, placing greater pressure on the remaining forward players to deliver.AustraliaAustralia come into this match off the back of mixed results, having followed up a strong 2–0 win over Turkey with a 2–0 defeat to the United States. That loss dashed their hopes of topping the group but still leaves qualification within reach.The Socceroos know that a draw or victory would confirm their place in the knockout rounds, making them slightly better positioned than their opponents. While finishing third could still be enough to progress in the expanded format, relying on other results is far from ideal.Historically, Australia have fared well in this matchup, remaining unbeaten in five previous meetings with Paraguay, including a 1–0 victory in their last encounter. That record will provide a psychological boost heading into a high-stakes fixture.Tony Popovic’s side have been relatively consistent in recent matches, winning three, drawing one and losing two of their last six games, with a positive goal difference across that run. Their defensive structure has generally been solid when at full strength.Team NewsThere are some minor fitness concerns, with Mathew Leckie dealing with a muscle issue. While he has not been ruled out, it may be precautionary to replace him with Cristian Volpato. Elsewhere, midfielders Aiden O’Neill and Paul Okon‑Engstler are likely to retain their places, providing continuity.At the back, Australia are expected to stick with the same defensive trio of Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar and Cameron Burgess, who have started both matches thus far. Stability in defence could prove crucial in a game where fine margins are likely to decide the outcome.Key Factors to ConsiderParaguay must win to guarantee qualification, adding pressure to their performance.Miguel Almirón’s suspension significantly weakens Paraguay’s attacking threat.Australia require only a draw to secure progression, giving them a tactical advantage.The Socceroos are unbeaten in all previous meetings with Paraguay.Paraguay’s recent victories have largely been narrow, suggesting another tight contest.Defensive organisation from Australia’s backline could prove decisive against a weakened attack.ConclusionParaguay’s fighting spirit and ability to grind out results suggest they will remain competitive, even without one of their key attacking players. However, their reduced threat in the final third could prevent them from consistently troubling Australia’s defence.Australia, on the other hand, enter the match with a clearer path to qualification and a more balanced squad. While not at their best in the previous match, they possess enough attacking quality to capitalise on opportunities.In what is likely to be a tense and closely fought encounter, Australia are backed to at least secure the point required, booking their place in the knockout stage.Verdict: DrawBest odds: 29/25Bookmaker: 22betThe post Prediction: Paraguay vs Australia appeared first on SoccerNews.