Weekly Bias — 29 JuneInvesco QQQ Trust Series INASDAQ:QQQpakoumalThe June low around $686 was a sell-side liquidity sweep — price immediately reclaimed it & now we're seeing the opposite, repeated failures above $740-$748 → buy-side liquidity being harvested Price hasn't made a major lower low, but RSI has rolled over to approximately 46 Momentum is deteriorating faster than price MACD histogram continues expanding negatively The signal line remains below zero Momentum still favors sellers The decline is occurring on average to slightly declining volume, not panic volume Suggests profit taking, dealer hedging & systematic selling rather than institutional liquidation A close beneath $698 would materially weaken the bullish intermediate-term structure The largest high-volume nodes remain around $706 $687 $636 These become magnets if selling accelerates Resistance $719-$723 (20d EMA) $729-$730 $740 $748 Support $706 $698-$700 $687 $672 SPY is approaching the same inflection point Current price sits almost directly on the rising 50d EMA Average has supported every correction since April If it fails, next support becomes $720 → $710 Momentum is exactly like QQQ, RSI falling & MACD bearish → momentum weakening IWM isn't not confirming the weakness Instead it's making new recovery highs, remaining above the 20d EMA & remaining above the 50d EMA Relative strength has shifted toward cyclicals & small caps Rotation is constructive for the broader market If IWM also loses $292, then the market becomes much more concerning The charts suggest growth is under pressure while cyclicals continue outperforming Aligns with stable or slightly lower yields, less pressure on duration-sensitive stocks & leadership broadening beyond mega-cap AI If yields unexpectedly rise sharply this week, QQQ is likely to underperform further while IWM's relative strength could fade The $700-$706 area on QQQ & $729-$730 on SPY are the key levels from OI concentrations QQQ has significant dealer interest around the $700-$715 area, which could act as a pin area if realized volatility stays contained SPY shows notable 2-sided positioning, suggesting increased gamma around the current price & the potential for sharp moves if those levels break IWM shows dealers have very large put exposure clustered between $280-$290, making that area a likely support level unless selling accelerates significantly Based on recent realized daily movement QQQ approximately ±16-20 points SPY approximately ±12-15 points IWM approximately ±6-8 points Given the current technical setup, avoid chasing downside after several bearish sessions If QQQ tests $697-$706 & shows evidence of stabilization (higher low, bullish reversal candle, or improving intraday breadth), the higher-probability trade would be buy ATM or slightly ITM QQQ calls 10-21 DTE Initial upside targets $720, then $730, then $740 Thesis invalidation on a daily close below $698, with stronger confirmation if $687 fails If QQQ rallies back into $720-$723 & is rejected on weakening momentum, that area offers a favorable risk/reward location for short-duration bearish exposure targeting a move back toward $700 The HTF trend still favors bulls, but the daily charts show a meaningful loss of momentum so the next several sessions are likely to determine whether this is merely a healthy correction within the April advance or the beginning of a deeper retracement Using the AVWAPs, EMAs & the visible structure Price probes $700 (55%) → briefly breaks to $697 → buyers defend 50d EMA → recover $719 → challenge $730 Immediate reclaim of $719 (30%) → close above $730 → squeeze toward $742 → retest highs Need to see a strong daily close back above the recent-high AVWAP with improving RSI & MACD Lose $698 decisively (15%) → $686 → $672 → 100d EMA Would represent a deeper correction of roughly 10–12% from the high The anchored VWAPs strengthen the bearish short-term case without invalidating the longer-term bull market. Constructive again if QQQ reclaims $719 (20d EMA), closes above $730 (high AVWAP) & does so on expanding volume Would suggest the recent breakdown was a bear trap rather than true distribution Defensive if QQQ loses the 50d EMA (~$699) on a daily closing basis, the AVWAP from the June low starts acting as resistance instead of support & downside volume expands Would indicate institutions are no longer defending the post-April uptrend The most important support cluster (50d EMA + volume node + psychological $700 + nearby sell-side liquidity) — this confluence around $698–$705 is where we should expect the highest probability of a meaningful reaction since if buyers cannot defend that area, the correction is likely to extend toward the 100d EMA near $670; conversely, if that level holds & price reclaims the AVWAPs, it would fit the pattern of a healthy correction within the broader uptrend rather than the start of a new bearish cycle