DAN WANG, JULIAN GEWIRTZ2026年6月29日 Kiersten EssenpreisA globally recognizable tech executive, high-spirited from preparing for a public offering, offers imprudent remarks criticizing the government. The state strikes back harder than anyone expects. Overnight, the bargain between a skyrocketing sector of the economy and the government is shattered.一位在全球享有知名度的科技高管因筹备公开上市而情绪高昂，发表了批评政府的不审慎言论。国家随即发起了超出所有人预期的强硬反击。一夜之间，一个国家经济中正在飞升的行业与政府之间的默契被彻底粉碎。If you think this story could be about Anthropic, you’re only half right. In 2020, the Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma found himself in the doghouse after he publicly rebuked Chinese regulators. Citing regulatory concerns, the authorities canceled the public offering of Ant Group, another company Mr. Ma helped found, and subsequently unleashed a regulatory storm that left few Chinese tech companies untouched.如果你认为这个故事可能是关于Anthropic的，那你只说对了一半。2020年，阿里巴巴联合创始人马云在公开指责中国监管机构后发现自己陷入了困境。官方以监管问题为由，取消了马云参与创办的另一家公司蚂蚁集团的上市，并随后掀起了一场监管风暴，几乎没有哪家中国科技公司能够幸免于难。The U.S. government is skating close to its own Jack Ma moment, when a government wounds a tech leader seemingly out of spite. Self-destructive American actions, not Chinese competition, may be the most significant threat to the evolution of A.I. for years to come, long after the government and Anthropic resolve their current dispute.美国政府正滑向其自身的“马云时刻”，即政府似乎出于私怨而伤害一位科技领袖。在未来数年内，自我毁灭式的美国行动——而非中国的竞争——可能才是人工智能演进面临的最重大威胁，其影响在政府与Anthropic解决目前的纠纷后仍将长期存在。On June 9, Anthropic released its model Fable 5, an adapted version of its powerful Mythos model, which has incredible capacity to find vulnerabilities in software. Anthropic’s chief executive, Dario Amodei, even said that companies that used Mythos had called it a “superweapon.” Three days later, the U.S. government issued an export control directive blocking use of Fable 5 by foreigners and noncitizens — including some of Anthropic’s own employees — which prompted Anthropic to disable all access to the model. A tangle of explanations behind this directive have been reported, including the risk of “jailbreak” (when a model bypasses built-in safety guardrails) and the risk of access by foreign adversaries. On Friday, the government permitted Anthropic to restore some users’ access to a version of Mythos, though negotiations are still underway about Fable 5.6月9日，Anthropic推出Fable 5模型，这是其强大的Mythos模型的改编版本，具备寻找软件中漏洞的惊人能力。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代甚至表示，使用过Mythos的公司曾将其称为“超级武器”。三天后，美国政府发布了一项出口控制指令，阻止外国人及非公民（包括Anthropic自身的一些员工）使用Fable 5，这促使Anthropic禁用了对该模型的所有访问权限。坊间对该指令有着各种错综复杂的解释，包括存在“越狱”（即模型绕过内置安全防护栏）以及被外国敌对势力访问的风险。周五，官方允许Anthropic恢复部分用户对某一版本Mythos的访问，不过关于Fable 5的谈判仍在进行中。Over the past decade, the U.S. government has used export controls to deal sometimes crippling blows to Chinese technology champions. The action against Anthropic upended this logic by turning this policy instrument against American companies, purportedly to exert the U.S. government’s grip over increasingly slippery A.I. models. The challenges of regulating A.I. at the frontier have now reportedly moved the government to ask Anthropic’s chief competitor, OpenAI, to limit the users for its own next model.在过去十年中，美国政府曾利用出口管制对中国科技领军企业施加了有时是致命的打击。针对Anthropic的行动颠覆了这一逻辑，将这一政策工具转而对准了美国公司，表面上的理由是加强美国政府对日益难以掌控的人工智能模型的控制。据报道，监管前沿人工智能所面临的挑战目前已促使官方要求Anthropic的主要竞争对手OpenAI限制其下一个模型的使用者。We often think of A.I. as a race between the United States and China. Instead we are seeing the emergence of an even more acute form of competition, between the public power of governments and the private power of ambitious companies. Both countries are struggling to determine whether their frontier A.I. companies are national champions or national security threats. A.I. labs in both countries are also starting to realize how much their operations depend on the state’s sufferance. The U.S. government needs to strike a better balance between ambition and control, lest it irrevocably damage its relationship with these companies and America’s long-term technological edge.我们经常将人工智能看作是美国与中国之间的一场竞赛。但我们现在看到的是一种甚至更加剧烈的竞争形式的浮现，即政府的公权力与有雄心的公司的私权力之间的竞争。两国都在艰难地权衡其前沿人工智能公司究竟是国家领军企业还是国家安全威胁。两国的人工智能实验室也开始意识到，他们的运营在多大程度上依赖于国家的容忍。美国政府需要在雄心与控制之间取得更好的平衡，以免不可逆转地损害其与这些公司的关系，以及美国长期的技术优势。The second Trump administration has careened from extreme to extreme on A.I. policy. It came into office de-emphasizing some A.I. safety concerns, downplaying harms to workers and preaching the virtues of a hands-off approach. Its stance shifted in March: The Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after the company protested the use of its A.I. models in autonomous weapons and domestic mass surveillance. Reports about Mythos’s capabilities the following month appear to have shocked the administration into taking safety more seriously. The confrontation around Fable 5 has been the latest turn in a dance between a company that proclaims a desire for safeguards and an administration that wants unfettered control over these models.第二届特朗普政府在人工智能政策上经历了从一个极端到另一个极端的剧烈摇摆。它在执政之初淡化了一些对人工智能安全的担忧，低估了对劳动者的伤害，并宣扬不干涉方法的优点。其立场在3月发生了转变：在Anthropic抗议将其人工智能模型用于自主武器和国内大规模监控之后，五角大楼将该公司指定为供应链风险。次月，关于Mythos能力的报告似乎让特朗普政府大受震动，从而开始更加严肃地对待安全问题。一方是宣称渴望采取防护措施的公司，另一方是想要对这些模型进行全权控制的政府，围绕Fable 5的对抗是双方博弈的最新转折。The Chinese government, meanwhile, has been overseeing its A.I. labs for considerably longer. It requires security assessments and tests models for their ability to anticipate Beijing’s sundry political sensitivities. The state has blocked Chinese companies from purchasing advanced Nvidia chips in an effort to favor the domestic chip industry, even after the Trump administration cleared these chips for sale to China. It has reportedly restricted overseas travel by certain A.I. researchers and told two of the founders of Manus, a popular A.I. agent that acts as a digital assistant, not to leave China while the government reviewed their company’s acquisition by Meta. The authorities soon after ordered the unwinding of the deal.与此同时，中国政府对本国人工智能实验室的监管时间要长得多。它要求进行安全评估，并测试模型预测北京各种政治敏感性的能力。国家已阻止中国公司购买先进的英伟达芯片，以期扶持国内芯片产业，尽管特朗普政府已经批准将这些芯片销往中国。据报道，官方已限制了某些人工智能研究人员的因私出境，并通知Manus（一款作为数字助理使用的热门人工智能智能体）的两位创始人，在官方审查Meta对其公司的收购期间不要离开中国。此后不久，当局便下令取消了这笔交易。Unlike in the United States, in China no one questions who will ultimately win the struggle between state and corporate power. But the effects of the regulatory storm Beijing unleashed in 2020 remain evident. Alibaba’s stock has lost around two-thirds of its value since Mr. Ma’s speech and Ant Group has still not been able to go public. Venture capital funding in China collapsed and is only now rebounding. These days, nearly any conversation with Chinese A.I. labs includes bitter complaints about government overreach.与美国不同的是，在中国没有人质疑在国家权力与企业权力的斗争中最终谁会获胜。但北京在2020年引发的监管风暴的影响依然显而易见。自马云发表演讲以来，阿里巴巴的股票已经失去了大约三分之二的市值，而蚂蚁集团至今仍未能上市。中国的风险投资资金遭遇挫折，目前才刚刚开始回升。如今，与中国人工智能实验室交谈，几乎总是免不了听到对政府过度干预的抱怨。The United States, with its system of legal protections and its deep capital markets pouring money into A.I., is not likely to suffer to the same degree. The companies and government officials are likely to reach an understanding. But Washington and American A.I. labs need to treat each other with greater sincerity and seriousness going forward.拥有法律保护制度和向人工智能注入大笔资金的深厚资本市场的美国不太可能出现如此程度的问题。公司与政府官员很可能会达成某种谅解。但展望未来，华盛顿和美国的人工智能实验室需要以更大的诚意和更严肃的态度对待彼此。First, the heads of A.I. labs need to stop their doom trolling. It makes little sense to make panicked claims about the destructive potential of A.I. without a plan to work with the government to address those risks. The current administration makes such cooperation particularly difficult because of its demonstrated willingness to punish companies to assert dominance or satisfy a political constituency. But the labs still must take more care to address A.I.’s transformative impacts.首先，人工智能实验室的负责人需要停止他们的毁灭预言渲染。在没有与政府合作应对这些风险的计划的情况下，对人工智能的毁灭性潜力发出恐慌性的断言是毫无意义的。由于目前的政府表现出通过惩罚公司来确立主导地位或满足某一政治选民群体的意愿，此类合作变得格外困难。但实验室仍必须倾注更多心血来应对人工智能的变革性影响。Second, the U.S. government needs to realize that the stakes of A.I. are far too high to allow a breakdown of trust. Despite a recent executive order that established a voluntary review program of highly advanced models, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has seemingly delighted in celebrating Anthropic’s troubles with the government. The administration has imposed major restrictions on Anthropic without offering sufficient explanation. Even if the government is nettled by the attitude of A.I. chiefs, it is irresponsible to treat them with contempt. American allies are wondering if they can rely on American A.I. models, and talented foreign researchers in American labs are reconsidering their career plans — neither of which serves American interests.其次，美国政府需要意识到，人工智能干系重大，绝不能容许信任关系的破裂。尽管近期出台的一项行政令建立了一项针对高度先进模型的自愿审查计划，但国防部长皮特·海格塞斯似乎非常乐于将Anthropic与政府之间的麻烦说成是好事。政府在未提供充分解释的情况下就对Anthropic施加了重大限制。即使政府对人工智能负责人们的态度感到恼火，轻蔑地对待他们也是不负责任的。美国的盟友正怀疑他们是否可以信赖美国的人工智能模型，而美国实验室里富有才华的外国研究人员也正重新考虑他们的职业规划——这两者都不符合美国的利益。Third, America’s government and its A.I. labs need to update their understanding of Chinese A.I. Beijing’s pronouncements on A.I. are distinctly less apocalyptic than Anthropic’s; Chinese firms are less able to invest in data centers (for lack of American chips) and more interested in applying A.I. to physical technologies. By most appearances, China is pursuing a substantially different vision of the A.I. future. Frictions within China may present an opportunity for the United States to put further distance between Chinese entrepreneurs and the overbearing Chinese state — but that would require the administration to drop policies that seem hostile toward foreign talent, including Chinese citizens.第三，美国的政府及其人工智能实验室需要更新他们对中国人工智能的认知。北京方面对人工智能的声明显然远没有Anthropic那样具有末日色彩；中国企业投资数据中心的能力较弱（因为缺乏美国芯片），它们更感兴趣的是将人工智能应用于实体的技术。从外表来看，中国很大程度上正在追求一种实质上不同的人工智能未来愿景。中国内部的摩擦可能让美国有机会进一步拉开中国企业家与专断的中国政府的距离——但这需要特朗普政府放弃那些似乎对外国人才（包括中国公民）怀有敌意的政策。The A.I. chaos of recent weeks is self-defeating. For the United States to win the A.I. future, it needs to do better at avoiding the missteps of Beijing.最近几周的人工智能乱局是在自我毁灭。为了让美国赢取人工智能的未来，华盛顿需要更好地避免重蹈北京的覆辙。Dan Wang是斯坦福大学胡佛研究所研究员，也是《突破：中國探索構建未來》（Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future）一书的作者。Julian Gewirtz是哥伦比亚大学高级研究员，曾任国家安全委员会中国和台湾事务高级主任，以及国务院中国事务副协调员。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。