ERIKA SOLOMON2026年6月29日周六，多艘船只停泊在阿曼北部穆桑达姆半岛附近，这里紧邻霍尔木兹海峡。 Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe four-day cycle of attacks that Iran set off with the United States over the Strait of Hormuz has risked derailing the newly reached cease-fire in a war both sides are eager to end.伊朗与美国围绕霍尔木兹海峡爆发的四天交火已经危及双方新达成的停火协议，而双方都渴望结束这场战争。Yet for Iran, analysts say, it was a necessary gambit.但分析人士表示，对伊朗而言，这是一次不得不进行的冒险之举。Iran’s newfound power to disrupt traffic through a waterway that is pivotal to the global economy is critical leverage it cannot afford to lose — either at the negotiating table or back at war with the United States.干扰这条对全球经济举足轻重的重要水道是伊朗新发现的能力，成为它手里最关键的一张牌。无论是在谈判桌上，还是将来重新与美国开战，这张牌它都绝不能失去。Last week, Oman and the U.N. International Maritime Organization designated a new route through the waterway that passed only through Omani territorial waters. That could have threatened the linchpin of Iran’s entire strategy — to make sure it alone controlled the strait.上周，阿曼与联合国国际海事组织划定了一条穿越该水道、仅途经阿曼领海的新航线。这可能会威胁到伊朗整个战略的核心，即确保这个海峡的掌控权完全在它的手里。“Best-case or worst-case scenario, they need this leverage,” said Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.国际危机组织伊朗问题高级分析师阿里·瓦埃兹表示：“无论是最好的情况还是最坏的情况，他们都需要这一筹码。”It is not clear yet when or where Iran and the United States might meet again for talks. But should that happen, Mr. Vaez said, Iranian officials see their control over the strait as their best tool for extracting U.S. concessions.目前尚不清楚伊美双方将在何时何地再次举行会谈。但瓦埃兹表示，倘若谈判重启，伊朗官员会将他们对海峡的控制视为迫使美国让步的最有力工具。The Iranians are seeking relief from years of punishing sanctions if the two sides move forward on a nuclear deal. Such an agreement would most likely entail Iran handing over or diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — material that could have been used to construct a nuclear weapon. 如果双方在核协议上取得进展，伊朗方面希望摆脱多年来的严厉制裁。这样的协议很可能意味着伊朗需要交出或稀释其高浓缩铀储备——这些材料本可用于制造核武器。Iran’s potential weaponization of nuclear power, despite its insistence that the program is peaceful, was long seen as its main strategic deterrence. That was until the current war, when Iran demonstrated through limited attacks on the Strait of Hormuz that it could close the waterway and send the global economy into a tailspin.尽管伊朗坚称其核计划出于和平目的，但将核能力武器化的潜力长期以来一直被视为它主要的战略威慑手段。但到了眼下这场战争，伊朗通过对霍尔木兹海峡的有限打击证明自己有能力封锁这条水道，让全球经济陷入混乱。For Iran’s worst-case scenarios, the strait is central.在伊朗预设的最坏情形下，海峡同样处于核心位置。Some Iranian officials suspect the Trump administration may have signed a preliminary deal with Iran only to buy time — easing economic pressures ahead of U.S. midterm elections before returning to war after.一些伊朗官员怀疑，特朗普政府与伊朗签署初步协议只是为了争取时间——在美国中期选举前缓解经济压力，以后再重启战争。If that happened, Iran would again need its ability to wreak havoc in the strait.如果真的如此，伊朗将再度需要在海峡制造混乱的能力。美国国务卿鲁比奥上周在巴林首都麦纳麦。“This is really critical. This is their main leverage,” Mr. Vaez said. “It doesn’t make any sense for them to allow it to erode before they have a final deal.”“这非常关键。这是他们的主要筹码，”瓦埃兹说。“在达成最终协议之前，让这种筹码被削弱，是毫无道理的。”Tehran feared this erosion was exactly the situation Washington may have been trying to engineer last week, regional experts said.地区专家指出，德黑兰担忧的正是这种侵蚀——他们认为，华盛顿上周的一系列动作或许正是试图制造这种局面。During a visit to several Gulf Arab states last week, Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, repeatedly asserted that free navigation would return to the strait.上周访问多个海湾阿拉伯国家期间，美国国务卿鲁比奥多次强调海峡的自由航行将得以恢复。Then came the move by Oman and the International Maritime Organization to establish a new route that bypasses Iranian waters.随后，阿曼和国际海事组织采取行动，建立了一条绕过伊朗水域的新航线。“The Iranians understood they’re losing control,” said Farzan Sabet, an Iran analyst at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland. They probably began to realize their influence works only “during wartime and during a hostile cease-fire, with regular hostilities.”瑞士日内瓦高级国际关系与发展学院的伊朗问题分析师法赞·萨贝特说：“伊朗人明白他们正在失去控制权。”他们可能开始认识到，自己的影响力只在“战时，或虽停火却充满敌对、且摩擦不断”的情况下才有效。That is why Iran’s response to the newly announced route was so swift, experts say, in the shape of a strike on Thursday against a Singapore-flagged container ship that used it.这正是伊朗对新航线反应如此迅速的原因——周四，伊朗向一艘使用该航线、悬挂新加坡国旗的集装箱船发动了袭击。Tehran never claimed responsibility for that attack, nor for a second strike on a vessel on Saturday, both of which elicited U.S. military strikes in return and subsequent Iranian retaliation on U.S. military targets in the Gulf.德黑兰未承认对那次袭击负责，也没有承认周六对另一艘船只发动了第二次袭击。这两起事件都引发了美国的军事打击，继而又引发伊朗对海湾地区美军目标的还击。On Sunday, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, appeared to deliver a veiled warning to expect more instability if attempts to bypass Iranian control over the waterway persisted.周日，伊朗外长阿拉格奇似乎发出了一个含蓄的警告：若外界继续试图绕过伊朗对这条水道的掌控，局势将进一步动荡。“Any attempt to adopt new or separate arrangements from those currently being pursued by the Islamic Republic will only lead to further complications, delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and an increase in tensions,” he said at a news conference during a visit to Iraq’s capital, Baghdad他在访问伊拉克首都巴格达期间举行的记者会上表示：“任何试图在伊斯兰共和国目前所推行安排之外另起炉灶的举动只会导致局势更加复杂，延误霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放，并加剧紧张态势。”周日，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇与伊拉克外长福阿德·侯赛因在巴格达。Iran’s rulers see the newly devised routes through Omani waters as directly contradicting the fifth article of what Washington signed onto in its memorandum of understanding with Tehran, which laid the foundation for a cease-fire.伊朗领导层认为，经由阿曼领海的新航线直接违背了华盛顿与德黑兰签署的谅解备忘录第五条，正是这份文件奠定了停火基础。In their reading of the vaguely worded document, this article granted Iran oversight of the waterway because it charges Iran with ensuring safe passage through the strait.按照伊朗方面对这份措辞含糊文件的理解，这一条款赋予了伊朗对这条水道的监督权，因为条款要求伊朗确保海峡的安全通行。It also says that Iran is to conduct dialogue with Oman, the other nation bordering the strait, “to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.”该条款还规定，伊朗应与海峡沿岸的另一国家阿曼进行对话，“以明确霍尔木兹海峡未来的管理和海事服务安排”。From Iran’s perspective, analysts said, the route Oman organized with the U.N. maritime organization — and without consulting Tehran — violated that, and had to be challenged.分析人士指出，在伊朗看来，阿曼与国际海事组织在没有与德黑兰协商的情况下开辟新航线违反了这一条款，因而必须予以回击。Iran’s willingness to provoke conflict amid the peace process aligns with the approach of the country’s new rulers, who want to show they are as willing to strike a deal with Washington as they are to go to war with it, said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran analyst who oversees the European Council of Foreign Relations’ Iran Nuclear Monitor.欧洲对外关系委员会伊朗核问题观察项目负责人、伊朗问题分析师埃莉·杰拉迈耶表示，伊朗在和平进程中挑起冲突的意愿与该国新领导层的策略一致——他们希望表明，他们既愿与华盛顿谈判，也不惮于与之兵戎相见。Iran’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, who was killed in the opening salvos of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in February, had a “no war, no peace” strategy, she said. He long avoided direct confrontation with Washington, but also barred direct high-level talks.她表示，伊朗前最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊奉行“不战不和”战略，哈梅内伊在2月美以联合军事行动的首轮打击中身亡。他长期避免与华盛顿直接对抗，同时也不允许双方展开高层的直接对话。The political elites around his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, “have a different risk appetite,” she said. “The regime is prepared to escalate in bold ways, for example, the recent hits in the strait that could derail the M.O.U. But it is also prepared to unlock peace with America through a new direct, high-level negotiation track.”她说，围绕其子、继任者穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的政治精英“有着不同的风险偏好”。“这个政权准备以大胆的方式升级局势，比如最近在海峡发动的可能破坏谅解备忘录的打击行动；但与此同时，它也准备通过新的直接的高级别谈判渠道，与美国开启和平进程。”Iran’s leaders may also believe this is the right moment to take risks, said Mr. Sabet, because they believe Mr. Trump will be reluctant to restart the war until after the U.S. midterm elections.萨贝特认为，伊朗领导层或许也相信，当下正是冒险的有利时机——他们判断，在美国中期选举结束之前，特朗普不会轻易重启战争。德黑兰街头表现美军飞机被困于霍尔木兹海峡的宣传画，摄于4月。Iran and the United States both have good reason to keep negotiating in the face of a frequently violated cease-fire.面对一份屡遭违反的停火协议，伊朗和美国都有充分理由继续谈判。For the Trump administration, the war is domestically unpopular, and there is most likely little appetite to return to a conflict that set off a global energy crisis. For Iran, facing economic disaster, oil sanctions waivers and the possibility of unlocking billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets are major attractions.对特朗普政府而言，这场战争在国内颇不得人心，而且很可能没有人愿意重蹈覆辙，再次卷入这场引发全球能源危机的冲突。而对面临经济灾难的伊朗来说，解除石油制裁以及解冻数十亿美元被冻结资产的可能性都极具吸引力。“The economic and military costs of a return to conflict produce enough incentives for both sides to try to keep the memorandum alive,” said Mr. Vaez of the International Crisis Group.国际危机组织的瓦埃兹表示：“重返冲突的经济和军事成本为双方提供了足够的动机来努力维持这份备忘录。”Most political analysts expect Washington and Tehran to continue to extend their initial 60-day negotiating period for many months.大多数政治分析人士预计，华盛顿和德黑兰将继续将最初的60天谈判期延长数月。But the repeated flare-ups in violence may mean that the already fragile peace process drags on with little progress.但暴力冲突的反复爆发可能意味着本已脆弱的和平进程将拖沓不前，难有进展。The more negotiators have to focus on addressing threats to the interim agreement, the less time they have to hammer out an agreement to comprehensively end the conflict and reach a nuclear deal.谈判代表越是需要关注应对临时协议面临的威胁，他们就越没有时间来敲定一份全面结束冲突并达成核协议的协定。“They will have to keep moving to figure out, ‘what do we do about this, what do we do about that?’” said Mr. Sabet of the Geneva Institute. “That doesn’t bode well for progress on the substantive issues that were supposed to come in this second round of talks.”瑞士日内瓦高级国际关系与发展学院的萨贝特表示：“他们将不得不不停地应付各种问题，‘这件事怎么办，那件事怎么办？’。这对原本应该在第二轮谈判中讨论的那些实质性议题的进展来说，并非好兆头。”Erika Solomon是《纽约时报》伊朗和伊拉克分社社长。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。