What to look out for in markets this week?

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It's going to be a bit of a hectic week, and a holiday-shortened one at that, with US markets closing early on Thursday and then closing on Friday in the run up to Independence Day. As such, that will see a lot of things being crammed together over the next four days for markets.So, let's take a look at some of the key things to focus on.US-Iran developmentsOver the weekend, tensions are flaring up again after Iran struck a commercial cargo vessel, the Kiku, in the Strait of Hormuz. After some light back and forth exchanges with the US, both sides are again looking to play things down to start the new week now. They are both standing off again as we look towards the resumption of high-stakes technical talks in Doha on 30 June.It is clear that both sides are fighting tooth and nail to salvage the broader 60-day memorandum of understanding at this point. However, the question remains whether or not they can find any common ground on nuclear/uranium issues as outlined before here.Strait of HormuzOn 26 June, there were around 40 to 50 vessels transiting the strait. In terms of crude oil vessels though, the figure was around 13 tankers according to Kpler. That continues to show decent promise and there were even a couple of VLCCs crossing.But after Iran's attack on Kiku, there was much apprehension in the waterway again. On 27 June, there were still around 40 vessels that crossed the strait. And while there were also a number of crude oil vessels transiting, they were all almost entirely smaller, regional Iranian-flagged tankers moving internally.So while there were some movements over the weekend, the details were not as encouraging with the rest of the maritime world being forced to slam the breaks. As things stand, high war-risk insurance premiums are still keeping many tankers waiting outside the Gulf of Oman.Sure, there are those willing to brave through the strait by deactivating their AIS transponders. But again, this isn't going to be a foolproof solution for many in trying to get the global energy and shipping market back on track.Big techFriday saw much volatility in Wall Street again but at the end of it all, major indices in the US closed just marginally lower. I'd take that as a win considering the amount of pressure that tech shares were under all through the week, despite Micron's earnings beat.The nerves will continue to persist this week but so far, US futures are looking up today. It's still too early to draw much conclusions, with some possible dressing ahead of the half-year close a consideration.But in the broader scale of things, there are growing concerns of how the AI trade can keep on delivering when investors are starting to demand firms to show me the money after all the insane capital expenditure in the past year or so.US non-farm payrollsYup, it's the cross to the new month but this time with a bit of a twist. With it being a holiday-shortened week, the US jobs report release will fall on a Thursday this week.With plenty of focus on the Fed outlook again, a hotter set of numbers here will have the potential to further ignite the dollar rally and put a dampener on the equities mood.Is there going to be much of a World Cup boost though? That might skew things a bit but markets may still just bite the bullet and take the numbers head on.Yen-tervention?USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 2024 highs near 161.95 since last week and Japan will struggle to change the narrative on this one. The currency pair looks set to try and blow past that and with it being a holiday to end the week, will the ministry of finance see that as another opportunity to act again?I argued before that it wasn't the best timing but they still went ahead and did it anyway in early May. So, keep a look out for this.Inflation, inflation, stagflationWe'll also be getting consumer price inflation numbers from Europe this week, so just be wary of how this will shape the ECB outlook ahead of the summer. Markets are still pricing in at least one more rate hike by the ECB by year-end and policymakers might have to consider taking an earlier step to avoid being paralysed once they fall into the stagflation trap.Month-end volatility?With all else that is happening, don't forget that the next two days will also feature month-end, quarter-end, and half-year-end flows potentially. So, that could see some added volatility and messy price action before things settle down and we look towards the US jobs report to guide the market direction before the early end to the week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.