FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has beensupported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dotplot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasingrate hike probabilities. There is now 32 bps oftightening priced in by year-end. There's a 29% chance of a hike in July and 62%probability of a move in September.There’s been a slightlydovish repricing in the last few days. One of the reasons could be the hugeselloff in oil prices which have now reached pre-war levels. The other reasonis that the hawkish repricing might have reached a near-term peak and for morewe will likely need upside surprises in the NFP and CPI reports.Although the greenbackshould remain supported into the data, we might start to see some consolidationor even pullbacks if we don’t get any meaningful catalyst before the key USdata.JPY:On the JPY side, nothinghas changed. We started to see a few spikes recently as the USD/JPY pairreached the highest levels since 2024. It looks more like profit-taking andwaiting for new catalysts rather than outright intervention given the small sizeof the moves. As a reminder, the BoJhiked the policy rate to 1.00% as widely expected at the last meeting andannounced the pause to the bond tapering programme from next fiscal year. The forward guidanceremained the same with the BoJ looking to continue the normalisation process,raising the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetaryaccommodation “in response to developments in economic activity and prices aswell as financial conditions”. BoJ’s Uchida didn’t offeranything new in the press conference reiterating the central bank’s willingnessto raise rates further if economic conditions align. The divergence with theFed will continue to keep the USD/JPY pair skewed to the upside until the USdata starts to point in the other direction. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY is still consolidating nearthe 2024 highs as intervention fears are probably capping the momentum. A breakabove the 161.95 level would take the pair to the highest level since 1986. Wecan expect the sellers to continue to step in around these levels with adefined risk above the 162.00 handle to position for a drop into the 158.00support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase thebullish bets into new highs. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havea minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback,we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below itto keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for abreak lower to extend the pullback into the 160.50 support zone. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here as the price action remains rangebound. The only two keylevels in the near-term are the 161.95 resistance and the trendline. The redlines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we get the US JobOpenings data and the US Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we have theUS ADP report and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we conclude with theUS NFP report, and the US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.