DAX — week of June 29 – July 3, 2026DAX FuturesEUREX_DLY:FDAX1!GekkquantBias: Top-heavy range — sell the rips. The mob charged the 25,353 wall twice and got its teeth kicked in twice, then DAX crawled off to close last week flat on its back at 24,838. But don't kid yourself it's a breakdown: price still clings above the weekly EMA (24,735) and the daily EMA50 (24,688), and the weekly MACD is still above its signal. This is a tired, heavy range, not a collapse — yet. Sellers hold the whip under the 4H EMA at 24,946; the bulls have nothing to brag about until they reclaim it. Defend the 24,712–24,688 shelf or the floor opens. THE BIG PICTURE (weekly) DAX has spent five weeks caged between roughly 23,977 and 25,494, and the last three weeks tightened that into a 24,712–25,353 box. Twice now — last week and the week before — the herd lunged at 25,353, and twice it got thrown straight back. Last week opened at 25,111, kissed 25,353 a second time, and was dumped to close at 24,838, a bearish weekly candle parked right on its lows. The only thing keeping the bull story stitched together is the rising weekly EMA at 24,735 and a weekly MACD still above its signal (212 vs 148) — so this is a top-heavy range, not a confirmed breakdown. But don't romance it: the easy money this month was made selling the highs, and the tape closed the week looking down. THE SWING (daily) Price is now below the 4H EMA (24,946) — that is the sellers' line, and they hold the intraweek ball under it — but it is still above the weekly EMA (24,735) and the daily EMA50 (24,688), so the bigger-frame bid hasn't broken. Monday opened soft at 24,897, got capped at 24,966, and is grinding 24,824. Until the bulls reclaim 24,946 and then the 25,111–25,149 supply shelf, every rally into resistance is a gift to fade, not a trade to chase. The week's pivot is 24,946; the line in the sand is the 24,712–24,688 shelf. Lose that and there is air down to 24,517 and the 23,977 floor. THE WEEK'S MAP (4H) Upside: 24,946 (4H EMA cap) → 24,966 (Mon high) → 25,111 (PW open) → 25,149 (PDH) → 25,258 (swing) → 25,353 (wk high / double-top) — only on a reclaim and hold. Downside: 24,735 (weekly EMA) → 24,712 (week low — defend) → 24,688 (daily EMA50) → 24,517 (prior-week low) → 23,977 (range floor). One number all week: 24,946 — the 4H EMA. Sellers own the tape below it; the bulls have nothing until they reclaim and hold it. Below sits the 24,712–24,688 shelf — lose that and 24,517 then the 23,977 floor come into play. THE CATALYSTS (CET) Mon 29 — No Tier-1 EU print. Quiet open; range trade and position ahead of the CPI week. Tue 30 — German Prelim CPI (state prints from ~08:00, national 14:00 CET) + French CPI 08:45 CET. Inflation appetizer before the bloc print. Wed 01 — Eurozone Flash CPI, Core + Headline, 11:00 CET. THE print — sets ECB cut odds and the week's direction. Thu 02 — US Non-Farm Payrolls 14:30 CET (pulled forward, July 4 holiday) + Eurozone Unemployment 11:00 CET. Global wildcard — DAX trades off Wall Street's reaction. Fri 03 — ECB's Lagarde speaks 10:00 CET; US closed for July 4. Thin holiday tape, drift risk. BOTTOM LINE DAX showed its hand. It charged the 25,353 wall twice, got rejected twice, and slunk off to close last week on its lows at 24,838 — that is not a bull market, that is a crowd buying tops and donating capital. But don't get cute and short the hole either: price still clings above the weekly EMA (24,735) and the daily EMA50 (24,688), so this is a tired range, not a collapse — yet. Sellers own the tape under the 4H EMA at 24,946 and the 25,149 supply shelf. Want to be long? Make it reclaim 24,946, then 25,149, and prove the bid before you touch it. Until then, fade the rips. Lose the 24,712–24,688 shelf and the dip-buyers get to watch 24,517 and the 23,977 floor in real time, with Wednesday's Eurozone CPI holding the matches. Trade the level, not the wish. Not advice — trade your own plan.