MARKETS week ahead: June 29 – July 5Crypto Total Market Cap, $CRYPTOCAP:TOTALXBTFXLast week in the news The key macro release during the week was the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. Although it was in line with market expectations, it still showed some persistence and a potential for a higher-for-longer Feds policy. The S&P 500 continued with its further correction, closing the week at 7.354. The price of gold continued to be under pressure due to US Dollar strengthening, closing the week at $4.088. US Treasury yield continued to ease reaching 4,37% as of the end of the week. The crypto market also stayed under pressure with BTC reaching the level of $58K at one moment, still closing the week around the support line at $60K. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, rose 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y in May, broadly in line with expectations. Core PCE eased slightly to 0.3% on the month and 3.4% annually, suggesting a gradual cooling in underlying price pressures. On the growth side, personal income and personal spending both increased by 0.7% in May, indicating resilient consumer activity. Final Q1 GDP was revised higher to 2.1% q/q, surpassing expectations of 1.6% and reinforcing the view of a still-solid U.S. economy. Market participants currently expect the Fed to maintain a cautious stance, with interest rates likely staying elevated for longer, while the probability of near-term easing remains limited unless upcoming labor market data shows clearer signs of weakness. Prices of memory chips are still in the spotlight of both markets and news. The market commentary highlights growing concerns around a structural memory chip shortage driven by surging AI-related demand, which is increasingly constraining supply for major technology companies. Reports indicate that firms such as Apple and Microsoft are facing rising input costs for DRAM and storage components, as data center expansion and AI infrastructure continue to absorb a significant share of global production capacity. Overall, the situation underscores a tightening memory market where AI-driven demand is reshaping cost structures and intensifying competition for critical semiconductor resources across the tech sector. SpaceX is set to be added to the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, 2026, marking a key milestone that is expected to trigger significant passive inflows from index-tracking funds and ETFs. The move follows Nasdaq’s fast-entry rules for newly listed companies, positioning the stock for increased trading activity and visibility among institutional investors. Despite this inclusion, the stock remains excluded from the S&P 500, as S&P Dow Jones Indices continues to enforce its standard eligibility criteria, including profitability and a 12-month seasoning period before consideration. As a result, index flows are expected to be concentrated in Nasdaq-linked products rather than broader benchmark funds. CRYPTO MARKET Another challenging week is behind the crypto market, with renewed selling pressure pushing the majority of digital assets lower after last week's mixed performance. Investors remained cautious amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to broad-based declines across both large-cap cryptocurrencies and altcoins. Although a few individual coins managed to post gains, overall market sentiment remained firmly risk-off. Total crypto market capitalization declined by 4,5% during the previous week, erasing $98B from its market cap. Daily trading volumes modestly increased to the level of $115B (last week $85B) turnover on a daily basis. Total market capitalization since the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -30%, with a total outflow of -$868B. Bitcoin declined by 4.7% on a weekly basis, while Ethereum underperformed with a 7.4% w/w loss. The weakness in the two largest cryptocurrencies weighed on the broader market and erased part of the recovery achieved during previous weeks. Losses were widespread across the major cryptocurrencies. Ripple fell 6.2%, Litecoin declined 6.8%, while Binance Coin lost 3.5%. Among the larger altcoins, Cardano dropped 8.0%, Hyperliquid declined 8.5%, Polkadot lost 11.8%, and Zcash fell 12.1%. LINK, ONDO, DASH and Algorand also posted weekly losses of around 6%. Only a handful of assets managed to finish the week in positive territory. Avalanche was the strongest performer among majors, gaining 8.4% w/w, followed by Solana (+1.2%), SUI (+1.1%), and DOGE (+0.8%). Outside of majors, several cryptocurrencies posted exceptional gains despite the negative market backdrop. Velvet led the weekly performance with an impressive 185% increase, followed by DeXe (+38%) and Audiera (+35%). Once again, strong gains remained concentrated in a limited number of niche projects rather than the broader market. Circulating supply changes were generally modest, with one notable exception. Polkadot recorded a substantial 17.9% increase in circulating supply, by far the largest weekly change among other coins. DOGE followed with a 10.2% increase, while Stellar and IOTA both expanded supply by 0.4%, and XRP increased by 0.3%. DASH, Zcash and Filecoin each recorded 0.2% increases, while Monero, Solana and Algorand rose by 0.1%. On the downside, Hyperliquid recorded a slight 0.1% decline in circulating supply. Overall, supply-side developments remained secondary to the continued deterioration in market prices during the week. CRYPTO FUTURES MARKET The crypto futures market came under renewed selling pressure this week, with both Bitcoin and Ether futures posting broad-based declines across the entire curve. While both assets weakened, Ether futures once again underperformed Bitcoin, reflecting continued pressure on risk appetite within the digital asset market. Bitcoin futures recorded weekly losses ranging from 4.1% to 6.3%. The largest decline was observed in the front-end of the curve, where the June 2026 contract fell 6.32% to $59,765. Losses gradually moderated in longer-dated maturities, with contracts from March through December 2027 declining by approximately 5.1%. This pattern suggests that traders remain cautious in the near term while maintaining relatively more stable long-term expectations. Despite the correction, the futures curve remains in contango, with longer-dated maturities continuing to trade at progressively higher prices. Ether futures experienced a steeper correction, declining between 7.2% and 9.4% across the curve. The June 2026 contract dropped 9.40% to $1,562, while September 2026 fell 9.03%. Longer-dated maturities also posted substantial losses of around 7.6%, with the December 2027 contract settling at $1,719. The significantly larger decline relative to Bitcoin indicates that Ethereum remained more sensitive to the deterioration in market sentiment, continuing the recent pattern of higher volatility. The week's trading reflected a broad risk-off move across the crypto futures market. Bitcoin proved relatively more resilient, while Ether absorbed the bulk of the selling pressure, leading to another week of underperformance versus Bitcoin. The heavier declines in shorter-dated contracts for both assets also suggest that market participants remain focused on near-term uncertainty rather than long-term fundamentals.