Trader Bias Shifts in the Nikkei 225

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Indices:- U.S. equity index futures are somewhat steady ahead of Micron’s earnings, yet to recover from yesterday’s losses where the tech-led selloff due to the semiconductor pullback saw the S&P 500 (-1.4% to 7,365) close lower and more so the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-3.3% to 29,347), with losses lighter for the Dow 30 (-0.1% to 51,666) and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.0% to close back below 3,000); Treasury yields moved lower with the 10-year just beneath 4.5% despite the risk-off moves in the financial markets, but real yields were a notch higher; market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) sticks (via majority) to a rate hike in September out of the Federal Reserve and a coin toss on another hike in DecemberStocks:- Shares of Nvidia (-4.2%) were caught up in a broad AI and semiconductor selloff as investors rotated out of crowded AI winners ahead of Micron’s (-13.2%) earnings today, with losses for key names within the sphere including AMD (-5.8%), Intel (-6.1%), and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) (-8%) on an unconfirmed report it’s in advance talks to acquire Modular- Tesla shares (-5.8%) declined as investors rotated into defensive sectors- Nasty drop in extended trading for shares of Cerebras (+1%; -11.3% AH) as it sees core gross margin dropping from over 46% to 36-38%- Shares of Alphabet (-0.8%) closed lower again but found some support in extended trading up 0.6% as it’ll replace Verizon (+3%; -0.6% AH) in the Dow 30 index- SpaceX (+1%) with a small rebound ending a recent selloff that had erased more than a quarter of its value from post-listing highs; Susquehanna initiates coverage with a neutral, and $170 price target- Other few large-cap tech names that gained included Microsoft (+1.8%), Amazon (+0.6%), and more so IBM (+5%) enjoying an upgrade to overweight out of JPMorgan as well as a price target hike- Defensive names outperformed amid the tech rout: Walmart (+1.9%), Johnson & Johnson (+3.4%), Procter & Gamble (+2.1%), Coca-Cola (+1%), Conagra Brands (+4.6%) and General Mills (+3.3%)- FedEx (NYSE:FDX) (-3.5%) beat on both earnings and revenue, but shares fell 6.3% in after-hours trading following the report as operating margin shrank- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-2.9%), GoPro (-2.7%), AMC (-24.2%) on news of share sale to some investors, Nokia (-5.2%), Avis (+2.2%)- Crypto stocks track cryptocurrencies lower: Coinbase (-4%), MicroStrategy (-5%), Mara Holdings (-1%), Gemini Space Station (-3.1%), Bullish (-0.7%), Circle Internet Group (-5.3%)Commodities:- Gold falls below $4,100 again and remains in its bear channel after a rough session yesterday as rising real yields and firm Fed rate hike expectations aiding the dollar on the FX front left the non-yielding precious metal exposed again, with an even larger percentage slide for silver briefly into the $60 handle and at a long-term support level, and taking the gold/silver ratio into the 66s breaching a mid-term resistance level there- Oil prices (WTI) hover near a short-term support level in the $72 handle after a red session as investors monitor tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid conflicting talk of how much is going through, as well as what both sides have agreed upon; API’s weekly energy inventory readings show a draw for oil (-0.8m barrels) but builds in gasoline (+1.2m) and distillates (+1.4m)FX/Central Banks/Crypto:- Bitcoin retreats to under $63K falling out of its short-term bull channel and remaining below its bear trend line, with the risk-off move, persistent outflows, and flight to liquidity aiding the greenback and hurting the general crypto sphere; Ether suffered even more yesterday in percentage terms breaking beneath $1.7K, it too falling out of its short-term bull channel- US Dollar Index breaches 101, enjoying a 13-month high as flight to liquidity, firm rate hike likelihoods, rising real yields, and relatively resilient economic data give it an edge- European Central Bank’s Escriva that higher oil prices are starting to feed into other areas of the economy, Lane that inflationary pressures may remain above target for “quite some time” and similar comments from Vujcic who sees inflation remaining higher for longer- Bank of England’s Taylor said that an extended hold in rates is the appropriate response amid uncertainty surrounding Middle East developments and weak domestic growth, while still seeing scope for cuts if inflation pressures prove benign- Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting shows members more hawkish, and one sees it suitable to keep raising rates as financial conditions remain accommodative- Bank of Canada’s Governor Macklem said that there is still little evidence of generalized inflation despite higher headline CPI, with most price pressures tied to energyCapital.com Client Sentiment:- Indices: Majority long bias climbs for most including the S&P 500 (heavier 72% from 71% yesterday), reaches heavy buy in the Nasdaq 100 (69% from 61%), while light losses in the Dow 30 and the partial recovery off the lows saw some fresher longs close out (taking majority buy sentiment lower from 62% to 58%); elsewhere falls out of extreme buy in the FTSE 100 (76% from 78%), and shifts in the Nikkei 225 (from a slight sell 53% to a heavy buy 74%) following yesterday’s notable pullback- Commodities: Long sentiment climbs again in gold (77% from 75% yesterday), just shy of extreme buy territory, and moves further within it in silver (88%) as some shorts closed out as its price reached a key support level, while trader bias held in WTI (heavy long 67%)- FX: Pullback in price starts to see shorts emerge in EUR/USD reducing long sentiment a notch (though at 67% from 68% yesterday still in heavy buy territory) with a similar story playing out in GBP/USD (69% from 70%); traders hold in USD/JPY (heavy sell 69%) awaiting further word (or action) on intervention, and shifted to the middle in USD/CAD (from a slight sell 52%)Data:- U.S. preliminary manufacturing PMI (S&P Global) for June rises to 55.7, comfortably above the 54.6 forecast, but job cuts worsen, and at 2009 highs when excluding the pandemic, services PMI also improves to 51.3, it too better than anticipated; Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for the same month worsens notably to 4 from a previous 13- EZ preliminary manufacturing PMI worsens to 51.3, remaining in expansionary territory, while services improved to 48.9, even if still suffering contraction- UK preliminary manufacturing PMI falls to 53.1 from 53.9, a miss, and so too services PMI at 48.7, failing to rise to 50- Australian CPI falls to 4% y/y in May from 4.2% and much lighter than expected, m/m -0.7% it too below forecasts, though m/m trimmed mean 0.4% a notch higher than anticipatedToday:- U.S. new home sales (6 pm Dubai time), weekly mortgage applications (3 pm), EIA’s weekly energy inventory estimates (6:30 pm), 5-year auctiono   Earnings from Micron- In Europe, German Ifo’s figures (12 pm)