BTC/USD : H&S bearish pattern spotted !Bitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDsnourBTCUSD Weekly timeframe 1. Chart Pattern Analysis: Head & Shoulders Structure: Your drawing correctly identifies the Left Shoulder (late 2024 peak near $110k), the Head (mid-2025 peak near $125k), and the Right Shoulder (late 2025 peak near $100k). The Breakdown: The ascending neckline (dashed orange line) was decisively broken bearishly in early 2026. The Retest: The blue dashed line shows a classic "kiss of death" retest where the price bounced to validate the breakdown level as new resistance before turning back down. Measured Move: The technical target of this pattern—measured from the peak of the head to the neckline and projected downwards—points to $35,400, as highlighted by your vertical target line. 2. Elliott Wave Theory Context Looking at the macro structure from 2023 to 2026, the entire H&S pattern appears to represent a major cyclical topping formation. The Impulse (2023–2025): The massive run-up from $16k up to $125k behaves like a textbook macro Wave 3 or a highly extended Wave 5. The Correction (Current): The breakdown of the H&S signifies that Bitcoin is firmly within a macro Wave 4 or a major A-B-C corrective cycle. The drop to the recent local low (~$55k–$60k) marks Wave A. The recent relief rally (retesting the blue line) marks Wave B. The current downward pressure suggests we are now entering Wave C, which typically matches or extends beyond Wave A, perfectly aligning with your lower target area. 3. Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions If we apply standard Fibonacci levels to the macro bull market spanning from the 2022 low (~$15,500) to the 2025 peak (~$125,000): $70,000–$82,000 Range: This acted as the 23.6% retracement area, which has now flipped from support to primary overhead resistance. $42,000–$44,000 Range: Represents the key 61.8% Golden Pocket retracement of the entire bull run. The $35,400 Target: This aligns closely with the 78.6% Fib retracement level and the major psychological/structural consolidation block formed throughout late 2023. 4. Momentum Indicators & Implied EMAs RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around 37–40. It is making lower highs and lower lows, mirroring the bearish price action. Crucially, it has dropped below the 50-midline on the weekly chart, confirming that bears hold macro control. There is still room to drop to oversold territories (