FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot lastweek as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing ininterest rate expectations. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a ratehike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). There are now 36 bpsof tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 34% chance of a hike already inJuly and 68% probability of a move in September.You can notice that there’s been a slightly dovish repricing in the lastcouple of days. One of the reasons could be the huge selloff in oil priceswhich have now reached pre-war levels. The other reason is that the hawkish repricinghas now run its course and for more we will likely need upside surprises in theNFP and CPI reports. Although the greenback should remain supported into the data, we mightstart to see some consolidation or even pullbacks if don’t get any meaningfulcatalyst before the key US data.JPY:On the JPY side, we startedto see a few spikes recently as the USD/JPY pair reached the highest levelssince 2024. It looks more like profit-taking near cycle highs than outrightintervention given the size of the moves. As a reminder, the BoJhiked the policy rate to 1.00% as widely expected at the last meeting andannounced the pause to the bond tapering programme from next fiscal year. The forward guidanceremained the same with the BoJ looking to continue the normalisation process,raising the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetaryaccommodation “in response to developments in economic activity and prices aswell as financial conditions”. BoJ’s Uchida didn’t offeranything new in the press conference reiterating the central bank’s willingnessto raise rates further if economic conditions align. The divergence with theFed will continue to keep the USD/JPY pair skewed to the upside until the USdata starts to point in the other direction. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY continues to consolidate nearthe 2024 highs as it’s struggling to break through likely due to interventionfears. A break above the 161.95 level would take the pair to the highest levelsince 1986. We can expect the sellers to continue to step in around theselevels with a defined risk above the 162.00 handle to position for a drop intothe 158.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break toincrease the bullish bets into new highs. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havea minor upward trendline and a support zone around the 160.50 level. If we geta pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the trendline and thesupport with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into new highs.The sellers, on the other hand, will need the price to break below the supportto open the door for a potential correction into the 158.00 support next.USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, wehave another minor upward trendline that will likely act as support for now.The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined riskbelow it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for abreak lower to extend the pullback into the next trendline. The red linesdefine the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we get the USJobless Claims data and the US PCE report. Tomorrow, we conclude the week withthe Tokyo CPI and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.