FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWGold maintains the bearish bias following the hawkish Fed dot plot lastweek as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a rise in real yields and astronger US dollar. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a ratehike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). The market increasedrate hike bets with now 41 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 36%chance of a hike already in July and 74% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warshstated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming dataand are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will reactto the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most importantsource of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under FedChair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “ratehikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed todo whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its pricestability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s beenmissing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. Thisshould keep weighing on gold at least until the next set of economic data.GOLD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that gold fell below the upward trendline again shifting the bias back tobearish. The natural target should be the 3,885 level. We can expect thesellers to continue to step in around the broken trendline to keep pushing intonew lows, while the buyers will need the price to rise back above the trendlineto open the door for new highs. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havea strong resistance zone around the 4,250 level where there’s also the broken trendlinefor confluence. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step inwith a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 3,885level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend thepullback into the 4,350 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we havea minor upward counter-trendline defining the current pullback. The buyers willlikely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellerswill look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level next. Thered lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the USFlash PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims data and the US PCEreport. On Friday, we conclude the week with the final University of Michiganconsumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.