US, Iran agree on a 60-day roadmap; will the Strait of Hormuz reopening last?US dollar is well supported despite light Fedspeak; could euro/dollar’s bearish breakout persist?Dollar/yen climbs as investors question Japanese Finance Ministry’s intervention strategyLight data calendar; all eyes on the pound as UK PM Starmer steps downUS, Iran Make Progress; Oil Above Last Week’s LowsFollowing numerous back-and-forth, mostly due to Israel’s continued military operations in Lebanon, after almost 18 hours of discussions, armed with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, the US and Iran agreed on a 60-day roadmap to a comprehensive peace agreement. This is just the first step in a process that could well last more than 60 days and could be marred by numerous shenanigans.That said, there seems to be genuine interest from both sides in a breakthrough, with the US promising reduced sanctions and the unfreezing of Iranian funds if Iran completely abandons its nuclear plans. Lower-level technical committees will take over the negotiations, laying the groundwork for the next round of top-level meetings in the foreseeable future.From a market perspective, the risk of further flare-ups remains but most investors are focused on oil supply routes. A mechanism guaranteeing the safe passage of ships via the Strait of Hormuz has been formed, pushing oil prices lower but not yet testing Thursday’s lows. There is still a risk premium embedded in oil prices that will probably linger until the current Middle East conflict becomes a distant memory.Dollar Remains in DemandThe US dollar continues to defy expectations for post-conflict weakness, with euro/dollar currently trading around 1.1460, almost two big figures below last week’s highs. Most notably, it is the pair’s sixth attempt to break below the one-year-old wide trading range.Interestingly, the overnight US-Iran roadmap agreement and some tentative signs of weakness in stock markets have not dented the dollar’s appeal, which along with the risk-on Aussie, is among the best-performing currencies at the start of today’s European session. The main culprit is last Wednesday’s Fed meeting and the hawkish surprise from both Chair Warsh and his least favourite dot plot, adding to and/or complementing the rise in US Treasury yields.Notably, despite the blackout period being over, there have been very few Fed members on the wires, partly confusing investors. Has Warsh imposed new communication rules limiting public appearances or are Fed members just very careful not to front-run or even alienate Warsh with their commentary?When Will the BoJ Intervene?Warsh is not the only one potentially meddling with market traditions, as the Japanese Finance Ministry continues to turn a blind eye to the rising dollar/yen. At the time of writing, the pair is hovering north of 161.50, ignoring verbal interventions and hawkish commentary from Deputy Governor Himino, who basically warned that failing to further tighten the BoJ stance will only result in higher inflation down the line.With PM Takaichi quickly responding that she prefers stable rates, and Governor Ueda still out of action for medical reasons, investors are pushing dollar/yen higher. Japanese Finance Ministry officials lost a golden opportunity to intervene last Friday, when the US was observing a bank holiday, which means that they might have to wait for July 4 or go into the market during a normal trading session which is going to prove very costly.Light Calendar, Focus on UK Political DevelopmentsA rather quiet start to the week in terms of data releases, with the stark exception of the Canadian CPI report for May that could offer some respite to the ailing loonie. Apart from the unscheduled Fedspeak, the newsflow from the UK could prove to be market-moving.Following an easy win by Andy Burnham in a Manchester by-election, pending a major U-turn, current PM Starmer is expected to stand down, opening the way for Burnham. This was a process in the making since the abysmal local election result in early May. Markets are somewhat welcoming the likely smooth transition, with the pound performing well against the euro. However, as Burnham’s economic plan, which is very close to former Labour leader Corbyn’s strategy, becomes the main discussion point, markets might prove less forgiving.