DAX Outlook: Resistance Rejection and the Case for a 2018-Style Germany 40 CFDFOREXCOM:GER40DalitsoTemboThe DAX (DE40) failed to break above its 2026 resistance level last month and did not reach new all-time highs (ATH), leaving the index under continued pressure. Until a new ATH is achieved, the DAX’s price action since Q4 2025 closely mirrors the 2018 bear cycle. Both fractals exhibit identical sequences on the 1D RSI, and each pattern began with a rebound from the 1D MA200 (orange trendline), which propelled the index to a new ATH. That was followed by a sharp correction that precisely touched the 1W MA100 (red trendline), formed a 1D Death Cross, and subsequently bounced. We are currently in the phase just below resistance. In 2018, this stage triggered a prolonged decline that ultimately broke below the 1W MA200 (black trendline), resulting in a total drop of -24.45% and a marginal breach of the 1.786 Fibonacci extension measured from the 1W MA100 low. This time, however, the 1W MA200 sits considerably lower than the 1W MA100. Barring a sharp crash, we expect the index to decline more gradually toward year-end, potentially testing the 1W MA200—which lies above both the 1.786 Fib extension and the -24.45% decline seen in 2018. Given this structure, we anticipate that the DAX will at least revisit its 1W MA100 near 22,800. Should it close a weekly candle below that level, a full bear cycle could unfold, with downside extending all the way to the 1W MA200 at 20,000.