Canada May CPI +3.2% y/y vs +3.0% expected

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Prior was +2.8% y/yCPI +1.0% m/m vs +0.8% expectedPrior m/m was +0.4%Core measures:BOC core +2.2 vs +2.1 priorBOC core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% priorCore CPI SA +0.2% m/m +0.3% vs priorCPI median 2.1% vs 2.1% expected (prior was 2.1%)CPI trim 2.0% vs 2.0% expected (prior was 2.3%)CPI common 2.7% vs 2.5% priorGasoline was the main driver of higher inflation but even excluding gasoline, prices rose 2.2% y/y in the month compared with 2.0% in April. Gasoline itself was up 33.2% y/y in May compared to +28.6% in April but that has now gone into reverse so the June reading will cool.We are also seeing the second-order effects of higher oil prices as air transport rose 7.4% y/y in May compared to -1.7% y/y prior.For background, Canada's headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% year over year in April, up from an increase of 2.4% in March. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in April, with the unadjusted monthly gain at 0.4%. The April reading was the highest in two years and came in below the market consensus near 3.1%. Statistics Canada released the figures on May 19, 2026.Energy was the dominant contributor. Gasoline surged 28.6% year over year, a sharp jump from the 5.9% gain recorded in March. Energy prices as a whole were 19.2% higher versus a year ago, the fastest pace since 2022. Drivers cited included the fading base-year effect from the April 2025 removal of the consumer carbon levy, supply uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict, and the seasonal switch to summer-blend fuel. The temporary suspension of the federal fuel excise tax that took effect on April 20 moderated the increase. Prices for fuel oil and other fuels rose 41.3% year over year in April.Elsewhere, food inflation eased to 3.5% in April, down from 4% in March. Rent rose at a slower pace year over year in April (+3.6%) compared with March (+4.2%). The Bank of Canada's core inflation metrics, median and trim, averaged 2.1% year over year in April, down from 2.3% in March, with trim at 2.0% and median at 2.1%. Inflation excluding gasoline was up a more modest 2.0% year over year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.