An Iraqi exit would remove the world's sixth-largest crude producer from the cartel's output discipline framework and, combined with the UAE's departure in May, would leave Saudi Arabia increasingly isolated as the group's enforcer. Mizuho's Robert Yawger puts a sub-$50 floor scenario on the table if producers begin racing for market share without coordination, a level not seen since the COVID collapse. Brent has already retreated from a March peak above $115 to around $75, closer to pre-war levels, and the directional pressure from further OPEC fragmentation is clearly to the downside. Saudi Arabia's spare capacity of 2 million barrels or more gives it a unilateral market lever, but deploying it aggressively to punish defectors risks accelerating the very price decline it would seek to avoid. The more durable read is that OPEC+'s role as the global swing producer has already been structurally diminished by US output growth, and the Iran war has accelerated that shift by exposing the vulnerability of Gulf supply coordination under geopolitical stress.---Iraq threatened to quit OPEC if output restrictions remain, intensifying the cartel's unravelling after the UAE's May exit and raising the risk of unconstrained Gulf production. Summary:Iraq threatened to exit OPEC on Thursday if it is not permitted to produce oil more freely, following the UAE's departure from the group on May 1, according to MarketWatch citing Mizuho Securities Iraq is the world's sixth-largest crude producer and, like the UAE, has invested heavily to expand capacity, making OPEC's production limits increasingly incompatible with its fiscal and infrastructure needsMizuho warned that if major producers begin maximising output without coordination, oil prices could fall below $50 a barrel, a level not seen since the COVID era; Brent topped $115 in March before retreating to around $75The UAE's exit, Iraq's threat, and the broader disruption caused by the Iran war have left Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait shouldering the burden of balancing global supply, while OPEC was effectively sidelined during the conflict as members could not move barrelsSaudi Arabia holds spare capacity of 2 million barrels per day or more, giving it unilateral market influence, but KPMG's Todd Fowler noted the Hormuz closure was the defining supply shock of 2026, accelerating the role of alternative suppliersThe US has effectively assumed OPEC's traditional role as the key global swing producer during the conflict period, a structural shift that further reduces the cartel's leverage over pricesIraq has threatened to quit OPEC if it is not granted greater freedom to raise production, adding fresh stress to a cartel already weakened by the UAE's exit in May, the upheaval of the Iran war and a structural erosion of its pricing power at the hands of surging US output.The threat, reported by MarketWatch citing analysis from Mizuho Securities USA, marks a potential tipping point for an organisation that spent much of 2026 trying to manage a global oil market turned upside down by conflict. Iraq is the world's sixth-largest crude producer and, like the UAE before it, has spent billions expanding output capacity it cannot fully deploy under existing OPEC discipline. The fiscal pressures from war-related infrastructure damage across the Gulf have sharpened the tension between cartel loyalty and national interest.The UAE formally left OPEC on May 1 after years of internal friction, and its departure was widely linked to a strategic calculation that maximising production now, while oil assets still command value, outweighs the benefits of coordinated restraint. Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities warned that if Iraq follows and producers begin racing to put unconstrained barrels on the market, oil could fall below $50 a barrel, a collapse not seen since COVID. Brent crude, which peaked above $115 in March at the height of the Iran war supply shock, has already retreated to around $75.OPEC was, in Yawger's assessment, effectively obsolete during the four months of conflict, as many members were unable to move barrels at all. The US stepped into the vacuum, assuming the role of global swing producer that OPEC had historically claimed. KPMG's Todd Fowler described the Hormuz closure as the defining shock of the period, one that accelerated the shift toward alternative suppliers and strategic reserve drawdowns on a scale that exposed the limits of Gulf-centric supply management.Saudi Arabia retains the most powerful unilateral lever, with spare capacity of 2 million barrels or more that could be deployed quickly. But that capacity is a double-edged instrument: using it aggressively to punish defectors risks driving prices lower at a moment when Riyadh itself needs oil revenue to fund reconstruction and diversification. The cartel's remaining members face a version of the same dilemma, producing more to hold market share or holding back to support prices while others free-ride. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.