BTC view updateBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDtrader_kyeolIn the last two Bitcoin posts, I noted the following: June 6 Post: A bearish view down to 55K, based on the continuation of the trend. June 15 Post: Considered discarding the bearish view; potential upside to 78K, though unconfirmed. Currently, I am placing more weight on the possibility of a decline to the 46K. _______________________ Summary of the June 15 Post: The rationale was that if a narrative emerged post-June FOMC increasing the odds of a rate cut, capital might flow into Bitcoin—a risk asset whose price had already fallen substantially compared to others. It appeared the downtrend had paused, prompting me to consider the upside. The Current Reality: However, during the subsequent June FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly stated twice that he firmly intends to return inflation—which has stayed above the Fed's target for a long time—back to 2%. Even though crude oil prices have dropped significantly, it is clear that rate cuts will not come easily. At the same time, Bitcoin's rebound does not look strong. If a major downward wave had indeed concluded, there would be a high probability of a much stronger rally than what we are seeing now, but it is failing to deliver. Therefore, I believe we must revert to the view of the June 6 post and look for a continuation of the downtrend. Furthermore, looking at the NASDAQ index, unlike about a month ago when any dip was rapidly bought back up, recent movements show it struggling to recover quickly and displaying more volatile fluctuations instead. If Bitcoin were recognized as an inflation hedge, it would track gold and decouple from the NASDAQ. However, as I have continuously emphasized in previous posts, price action confirms it is still being embraced as a higher-beta risk asset than the NASDAQ. Unless this fundamental framework breaks, if the NASDAQ drops, Bitcoin stands no chance.