DXY - A 13-Month High After the FOMC Confirms Wave...US Dollar IndexCAPITALCOM:DXYIntermarketEdgeFX2026DXY - A 13-Month High After the FOMC Confirms Wave (3), a Wave (4) Pullback to 99.1 Sets Up the Wave (5) Push Toward 103-104 | 22 June 2026 Reference Data | 22 Jun 2026, 12:51 GMT+7 DXY 100.623 | US10Y 4.480% | US2Y 4.220% | Real Yield US (corrected): 0.280% = 4.480% minus May CPI 4.2% JP10Y 2.660% (pipeline 1.47% stale) | DE10Y 2.980% | GB10Y 4.840% (pipeline 4.50% stale) Fed: hold + projected hike later 2026 (FOMC 17/06, hawkish dot plot) BoJ: hiked to 1.00% (pipeline "Hold" outdated) | ECB: 2.00% neutral hold (pipeline 2.50% outdated) EURUSD 1.1461 | USDJPY 161.678 | GBPUSD 1.3216 | VIX 16.70 Data Quality: Pipeline CPI US 2.4% stale (actual 4.2%, real yield 0.280%). Pipeline Fed/BoJ/ECB fields all outdated -- Fed held + projected hike later 2026; BoJ hiked to 1.00%; ECB 2.00% neutral. Pipeline JP10Y 1.47% stale (actual 2.660%). Pipeline UK10Y 4.50% stale (actual 4.840%). L0 | Regime Last week the FOMC confirmed the hawkish turn. This week DXY holds a 13-month high -- and the chart says the pullback before the next leg up is the trade to watch. The confirmed foundation. The FOMC held rates but projected a hike later in 2026 -- a hawkish dot plot under Warsh. DXY climbed to a 13-month high near 101 and held it through the week. The basket is uniform: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY all confirm dollar strength. The new wrinkle. Iran peace talks Round 1 ended but cracks emerged -- the haven premium that last week was draining is now partially returning. The wave structure. DXY is in a large impulse: wave (1) ~99, wave (2) ~95.5, wave (3) nearing completion ~101. A wave (4) pullback to 99.4-99.1 is expected before wave (5) pushes toward 103-104. Regime label: 13-Month High Confirms Wave (3) -- wave (4) pullback to 99.1 sets up the wave (5) push toward 103-104. Do not chase at the top. L1 | Driver Stack Bull DXY (the foundation): → Confirmed hawkish FOMC. Dot plot projected a hike later in 2026, DXY at a 13-month high. → Iran peace cracks. Round 1 ended with cracks in the deal -- haven premium partially returning. → Elevated US yields. US10Y 4.480%, US2Y 4.220%, real yield 0.280%. → Uniform basket. EURUSD 1.1461, GBPUSD 1.3216, USDJPY 161.678 all confirm. Resistance (technical, not directional): → Wave (3) extended at the completion zone -- wave (4) pullback natural. "Dollar's Appreciation Likely to be Limited." → BoJ hike to 1.00% compresses the US-JP spread, mild drag via the yen component. L2 | Macro US side: FOMC 17/06 held + projected hike later 2026. DXY at a 13-month high. Real yield 0.280% (4.480% minus CPI 4.2%). US2Y jumped to 4.220% digesting the hawkish dots. Waller speaks today; Flash PMI + ADP tomorrow. International: Iran peace talks Round 1 ended with cracks -- uncertainty returning. Brent -3% to 79.7 (peace progress + weak demand). ECB at 2.00% neutral hold. BoJ at 1.00% with hawkish guidance, JP10Y 2.660%, narrowing the US-JP spread. Risk: VIX 16.70, ticking up, cautious. The dollar is at a long-term high, the policy foundation firm, but counterpart central banks narrowing the gap (BoJ hike, ECB pause) suggests a breather before the next push. L3 | HTF Structure (D1) A large bullish impulse in the wave (3) completion phase: → Wave (C) bottom early 2025, Higher Low formed → Wave (1) ~99, wave (2) ~95.5-96 → Wave (3) nearing completion ~101 (internal sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5 clear) → Current: 100.623, in the wave (3) high zone Key levels: → Nearby support: 100.483 → Wave (4) pullback targets: 99.427 → 99.113 → deeper 98.549 → Wave (5) targets: 103.571 → 104.246 → 104.734 → INVALIDATION: 97.695 (marked on chart) Scenario outcomes by level: Below 100.483: wave (4) starting, targets 99.4-99.1. Hold 99.1-98.5 then break above ~101: wave (5) to 103-104. Below 97.695: impulse invalidated. L4 | Intermarket Cross-Check EURUSD 1.1461 (57.6% weight) -- in a low zone, confirming. USDJPY 161.678 (13.6%) -- near a 23-month high despite the BoJ hike, the dollar overpowers. GBPUSD 1.3216 (11.9%) -- also lower after soft UK CPI. All three confirm a strong DXY. US yields elevated. US10Y 4.480%, US2Y 4.220%, real yield 0.280%. US-DE spread ~1.50%, US-JP ~1.82% both tilt dollar (narrower vs prior, due to BoJ hike and DE10Y ticking up). VIX 16.70 -- cautious. Brent -3% to 79.7 -- neutral to mildly supportive for the dollar. L5 | Event Risk WALLER SPEAKS (TODAY) -- hawkish reinforces; cautious could trigger wave (4). FLASH PMI + ADP (TOMORROW) -- strong data reinforces the dots and lifts DXY; weak data triggers wave (4). ONGOING: Iran peace talks Round 2. Cracks after Round 1. Collapse pushes haven premium back (DXY up); progress reduces it. Scenario matrix: → Wave (4) pullback to 99.4-99.1 then wave (5) to 103-104. Probability: 40% → Strong data or deeper Iran cracks, extension through 101 toward 103. Probability: 25% → Deeper wave (4) to 98.549 on weak data, then resume. Probability: 20% → Break below 97.695, invalidation. Probability: 15% L6 | Conviction Bull DXY factors: confirmed hawkish FOMC (13-month high), Iran peace cracks (haven returning), elevated yields, uniform basket. Resistance factors: wave (3) extended at completion zone (pullback expected), BoJ hike narrowing the spread, "Dollar Appreciation Likely Limited." Aggregate conviction: Medium-High Bull structural. The foundation is confirmed: hawkish FOMC, 13-month high, uniform basket, elevated yields. Iran cracks add haven support. But wave (3) is extended, so a wave (4) pullback to 99.1-99.4 is the positioning opportunity for wave (5) toward 103-104. Do not chase at the 100.6-101 top. Wait for the wave (4) entry. L7 | Time Horizon 24 to 48 hours: Waller today, PMI/ADP tomorrow. Bias bullish but wave (4) may begin on weak data. Range: 99.4-101. 1 to 2 weeks: Wave (4) to 99.4-99.1 creates the buy zone, then wave (5) toward 103-104. Iran and US data are catalysts. Range: 98.5-104. 1 to 3 months: The thesis toward 103-104 holds as long as the Fed stays hawkish. Risk: counterpart central banks narrowing the gap, a complete Iran peace deal. Invalidation: 97.695. L8 | Invalidation Bull thesis fails if: → Daily close below 97.695 (chart-marked invalidation) -- negates the impulse. Wave (4) confirmed if: → Break below 100.483 then 99.427. Wave (5) triggered if: → Hold 99.1-98.549 in wave (4), then break above the wave (3) high ~101 → Targets 103.571 → 104.246 → 104.734 The tell: the wave (4) pullback. Strong data or Iran cracks skip it and extend to 103; weak data triggers the dip to 99.1 that sets up the real move. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. All levels and scenarios are analytical frameworks based on publicly available data. Past structure does not guarantee future outcomes. #DXY, #DollarIndex, #USD, #FOMC, #Fed, #Warsh, #Dollar, #ElliottWave, #Iran, #Hormuz, #RealYield, #Macro, #IntermarketAnalysis, #Forex, #TechnicalAnalysis