FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar surged across the board on Wednesday on the more hawkish thanexpected dot plot (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). Themedian dot showed one rate hike this year and some of those hawkish memberspencilled in multiple hikes. By projecting a rate hike, the Fed effectivelyadopted a tightening bias in the short-term.The market increased rate hike bets immediately with now 41 bps oftightening priced in by year-end. There's a 36% chance of a hike already inJuly and 74% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warshstated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming dataand are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will reactto the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most importantsource of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under FedChair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “ratehikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed todo whatever they deem necessary. If the data says they need to hike, they will.INR:On the INR side, theRupee staged a strong relief rally since Trump’s deal announcement two weeksago as oil prices cratered on expectations of Hormuz reopening. The bullishmomentum has waned in the final part of last week following the hawkish Feddecision and some minor tensions in the Middle East as Israel continued to strikeHezbollah in Southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz was closed again in retaliation but the US-Iran talks in Switzerland seem to have already de-escalated the situation. In the bigpicture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technicallevels to keep pushing the USD/INR pair into new highs. USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the dailychart, we can see that USDINR broke the upward trendline and extended the drop into new lows beforeconsolidating. We now have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum.If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with adefined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the otherhand, will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the 96.00 handle next. USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hourchart, we have a strong resistance zone around the 95.10 area. That will likelybe the first opportunity for the sellers to position for a drop into new lowswith a defined risk above the resistance. The buyers, on the other hand, willlook for a break to extend the pullback into the trendline. USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hourchart, there’s not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective,the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance andthe trendline, while the buyers will need upside breaks to open the door fornew highs. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the USFlash PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims data and the US PCEreport. On Friday, we conclude the week with the final University of Michiganconsumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.