Fundamental Market Analysis for June 26, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The ECB’s June decision has created both support and constraints for the euro. The central bank raised key interest rates by 25 basis points in response to renewed inflation pressure from energy prices. However, its updated forecasts point to 3.0% inflation in 2026 alongside economic growth of just 0.8%. The market sees that the fight against inflation will take place against a backdrop of weaker demand across the euro area. US data continues to provide the US dollar with a firmer fundamental base. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 4.1% year-on-year in May, while consumer spending increased by 0.7%. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July declined after the release, but inflation remains well above target and the labour market is still resilient. This continues to support demand for the US dollar. For EUR/USD, the key issue is the difference in the quality of the economic backdrop. The ECB is responding to inflation pressure while lowering its growth outlook, whereas the United States continues to show resilient demand. Any pause in US dollar strength may limit intraday moves, but it does not change the broader imbalance in expectations. If this combination of factors persists, the downside scenario remains the priority. Trading idea: SELL 1.13600, SL 1.13800, TP 1.13000