Silver down more than 50% from all-time highs as Fed tightening risk weighs on the market

Wait 5 sec.

FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWSilver has been falling hard in the recent days the fallout from thehawkish Fed decision continued to push real yields and the US dollar higher. Wehaven’t got any meaningful catalysts since the FOMC, so the markets continuedto run mostly by inertia. The price has fallen more than 50% from the all-time highs. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a ratehike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). The market increasedrate hike bets with now 37 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 34%chance of a hike already in July and 68% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warshstated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming dataand are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will reactto the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most importantsource of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under FedChair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “ratehikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed todo whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its pricestability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s beenmissing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. For adecent pullback, silver will need soft US data in the next weeks to trigger adovish repricing that pushes real yields and the US dollar lower.SILVER TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that silver has finally reached the major trendline around the 56.00 level.This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below thetrendline to position for a pullback into the downward trendline around the 65.00level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breakinglower to increase the bearish bets into the 45.00 level next. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we haveanother downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. Ifwe get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on itwith a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on theother hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullishbets into the next trendline.SILVERTECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, wehave yet another minor downward trendline. Again, since the bias remainsbearish, the sellers will continue to look for opportunities to keep pushinginto new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for upside breaks topile in and target new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we get the USJobless Claims data and the US PCE report. Tomorrow, we conclude the week withthe final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.