Copper: speculators near record long into June 30 tariff callCopper FuturesCOMEX_DL:HG1!NightbricksCopper is sitting on a rare combination heading into a binary policy event, and the positioning data is the part most charts miss. The setup. The US Section 232 copper review reaches a decision point on June 30, when the Commerce Secretary updates the President on the copper market and duties on refined copper can be determined. Commerce has recommended a 15 percent tariff on copper raw material imports from January 2027, stepping up to 30 percent in 2028, on top of the existing 50 percent tariff on semi-finished and derivative copper that has run since August 2025. Front-month COMEX copper is near 6.1 per pound in late June, off its highs as a firmer dollar weighs on the move. What positioning says. In the CFTC report dated June 16, Managed Money (the speculative crowd) is net long about 71,000 contracts in COMEX copper, and the commercial hedgers who trade the physical metal are net short about 101,000 against them. On a standardised basis that speculative net long sits near the very top of its multi-year range, a COT Index reading around 96 out of 100 and a z-score near plus 1.2. In plain terms, almost everyone who wanted to be long is already long, and the smart money is taking the other side. Why it matters here. A crowded long is not a sell signal by itself, an extreme can persist for weeks. What it does is change the risk around a known catalyst. Into a binary tariff decision, the speculative side has little dry powder left to push price higher on a bullish outcome, while a disappointing or already-priced outcome leaves a stretched long to unwind. That asymmetry, crowded one way into an event, is exactly what the COT z-score is built to flag. How to read it on the chart. Watch the June 30 reaction against recent range support near the 7-week lows. A failure to hold on a bullish headline would confirm that positioning, not fundamentals, was the constraint. A flush that resets the speculative long back toward neutral is the more constructive setup for a continuation later. Context. The COT Index and z-score above come from standardising the CFTC data, which is what the free COT Index Lite indicator plots directly in a pane on this chart, and what the COTInsight dashboard scores across 475 plus markets every Friday. Data via the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Nothing here is investment advice, and futures carry substantial risk.