Gold regains some ground as the hawkish repricing might have reached a near-term peak

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FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWGold fell briefly below the 4,000 level on Wednesday but couldn’t extendthe losses further as we started to see pullbacks in real yields and the USdollar. It looks like we have reached the peak in the hawkish repricing, andthe next leg will need upside surprises in the US NFP and US CPI reports. Fed’s Williams yesterday reiterated that the current policy setting is wellpositioned and the US Core PCE came in line with expectations. All in all, thereisn’t a strong reason to price in any more rate hikes at the moment. We’ve alsobeen seeing a pullback in the rate hike bets as the total tightening expectedby year-end fell from a peak of 42 bps after the FOMC decision to 32 bps now. Therefore, we either see the pullbacks extending further in the next days orthe price action remains rangebound until we get the US data. Chasing lowerprices at the moment without a meaningful fresh catalyst looks bad from a riskto reward perspective. GOLD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that gold dropped below the 4,000 level and started to consolidate. The naturaltarget remains the 3,885 level. If we get a pullback into the downwardtrendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above itto keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to seethe price breaking higher to open the door for a rally into the next trendlinearound the 4,600 level. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the price is breaking above the minor downward trendline that was definingthe bearish momentum on this timeframe. This might be an early signal of a biggerpullback to come. The buyers will likely pile in here with a defined risk belowthe recent lows to position for a rally into the major trendline around the4,300 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price fallingback below the trendline to extend the drop into the 3,885 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, wehave a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback. The buyers willlikely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, whilethe sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 3,885level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we conclude theweek with the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.