Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTHillary RemyFri, June 26, 2026 at 7:47 PM GMT+2 5 min readJPMorgan's head of global markets strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas published the bank's mid-year outlook on June 24 with an admission buried near the top.The firm had been "much too cautious" on earnings coming into 2026. The scale of upward revisions the market delivered, he wrote, has no modern precedent outside of post-recession or post-shock environments.The note raised the bank's S&P 500 target. It also came with a warning on AI stock positioning that the headline number tends to overshadow.JPMorgan raises S&P 500 year-end target to 7,800 and lifts EPS forecastsJPMorgan raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800 from 7,600, Investing.com reported. The index's most recent close near 7,365 implies roughly 6% upside to the new target. The bank also lifted its 2026 S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimate to $350, representing 29% year-over-year growth, and set a 2027 EPS target of $390.The 2027 figure sits below market consensus. JPMorgan is more cautious on the outer year than most of its peers, reflecting concern that AI pricing power may diminish as competition in the sector increases and the initial wave of hyperscaler capex spending begins to moderate.More Wall Street:HSBC doubles down on stock market message for 2026Citi quietly resets S&P 500 price target for the rest of 2026Jim Cramer has a stark message on the stock market for 2026The bank's 2027 EPS forecast of $390 implies it sees the earnings growth rate decelerating from 29% in 2026 to roughly 11% in 2027.At least seven research firms raised their S&P 500 year-end targets this month, according to Investing.com. Barclays raised its target to 7,800 earlier this week, matching JPMorgan's new number.The S&P 500 is up roughly 7.6% year to date and has gained 16% from its March 30 lows. The technology sector leads with a 27% gain so far this year, Yahoo Finance noted.Why JPMorgan called AI earnings upgrade cycle "unprecedented"The central argument in JPMorgan's mid-year note is that the AI investment boom has generated earnings revisions at a pace without modern precedent. Consensus earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have risen about 10% this year.AI-related capital expenditure budgets among technology hyperscalers have nearly doubled over the same period.First-quarter 2026 earnings grew 28.4% year over year, with the information technology sector growing roughly 60% on its own, according to FactSet data.Lakos-Bujas said the bank's biggest midyear regret was not being bullish enough on the earnings outlook from the start. JPMorgan had raised its target to 7,600 in April, citing early signs of earnings momentum. The revision cycle kept running well past what the bank expected when it made that call.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info