Fundamental Market Analysis for June 24, 2026 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The pound remains close to 1.32000, but the domestic backdrop offers limited support. At its June meeting, the Bank of England kept its rate unchanged at 3.75% by a 7–2 majority, while two Monetary Policy Committee members voted for a rate increase. This split suggests that the central bank still sees inflation risks but is not yet ready to begin a new tightening cycle. UK inflation remained at 2.8% in May, while CPIH services inflation accelerated to 3.6%. This combination complicates the Bank of England’s outlook: persistent services inflation calls for caution, while weak demand limits the room for tighter policy. Therefore, the interest rate outlook does not currently provide the pound with a clear advantage. At the same time, the US dollar is strengthening on the back of Federal Reserve expectations and more cautious sentiment towards risk-sensitive assets. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom adds to sterling’s sensitivity to this external pressure, even if it is not the main market driver. If the current backdrop persists, GBP/USD may remain under pressure, and a sell scenario appears more consistent with the fundamental picture. Trading idea: SELL 1.32000, SL 1.32300, TP 1.31100