DAVID E. SANGER, YEGANEH TORBATI2026年6月24日在此次美伊谈判中，泄露信息的变成了官方的声明——尽管是零碎不完整的，且通常来自美国方面。 Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York TimesPresident Trump was eager on Tuesday morning to announce the latest concession that he says his negotiators extracted from Iran, writing on social media that the country had agreed to allow the “highest level Nuclear Inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!).”周二上午，特朗普总统迫不及待地宣布了他所称的谈判代表从伊朗那里争取到的最新让步，他在在社交媒体上写道，伊朗已经同意“在未来很长时间内（无限期！！！）接受最高级别的核检查”。But he omitted the fact that as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Iran is required to allow in international inspectors. And his statement came after the Iranians had insisted that there were no plans to allow inspectors into the three major nuclear sites the United States bombed a year ago — and where just about all the nation’s enriched uranium is stored.但他没有提到这样一个事实：作为《不扩散核武器条约》的签署国，伊朗本来就有义务接受国际核查人员的检查。而且就在他发表上述言论之前，伊朗方面还坚称，没有计划允许核查人员进入一年前遭美国轰炸的三处主要核设施——伊朗几乎全部浓缩铀都储放在这些地点。The previous day, Vice President JD Vance, leaving the negotiating site at a Swiss resort, said Iran had agreed that if Iranian assets were unfrozen, the United States and Qatari officials would oversee the process and the money would be used to buy American farm products. The Iranians denied that, too, saying that the 14-point memorandum of understanding they had signed with the Americans did not require them to do so.前一天，副总统万斯离开位于瑞士一处度假村的谈判地点时表示，伊朗已同意，若伊朗资产获得解冻，美国和卡塔尔官员将监督解冻过程，且相关资金将用于购买美国农产品。伊朗方面同样予以否认，称双方签署的14点谅解备忘录并未作出此类要求。Negotiating with Iran has always been an extraordinary challenge. But until recently, one rule of diplomatic bargaining has usually held: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” That is how the United States and Iran traditionally have left themselves some trading space, and fine-tuned wording to satisfy the many critics at home who will have to be sold on any agreement. In 2015, when details of the inner-sanctum negotiations leaked, American officials complained bitterly, saying that the news reports were making it harder to get to a final deal.与伊朗谈判向来极具挑战性。但直到最近，外交谈判有一条规则通常还是成立的：“在所有问题达成共识之前，没有任何问题是已经谈定的。”美国和伊朗过去正是以此为自己保留讨价还价的空间，并通过微调措辞来说服各自国内那些必须被说服的众多批评者。2015年，当闭门谈判的细节外泄后，美国官员曾大为光火，称媒体报道令最终协议更难达成。But in this negotiation the leaks are replaced by official, if fragmentary, announcements — usually from the American side. Mr. Trump’s style is often to describe his preferred outcomes as fully negotiated side deals, in hopes of locking the Iranians into each element of any eventual agreement.但在本次谈判中，泄露信息的变成了官方的声明——尽管是零碎不完整的——且通常来自美国方面。特朗普的惯常风格是将自己期望的结果描述为已经谈妥的附属协议，希望以此迫使伊朗在未来的最终协议中接受这些内容。The Iranians seem to have caught on. And they have a spin strategy of their own: deny the American statements immediately and publicly to avoid getting cornered, even if there is an element of truth to Mr. Trump’s pronouncements. It is the kind of public dynamic that can easily undermine a high-stakes negotiation.伊朗人似乎已经看穿了这一点。他们也有自己的舆论策略：无论特朗普的说法是否包含部分事实，都立即公开否认，以免自己陷入被动。这种公开博弈很容易破坏一场高风险的谈判。Suzanne Maloney, an expert on Iran and the vice president for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, one of Washington’s leading think tanks, said that both “Washington and Tehran are engaged in a public battle to shape the narrative and advance their preferred outcome on specific elements of the negotiations.”华盛顿顶尖智库之一布鲁金斯学会的外交政策副总裁、伊朗问题专家苏珊·马洛尼表示，“华盛顿和德黑兰都在进行一场公开角力，以塑造叙事并在谈判的具体事项上争取各自想要的结果。”The public divergence, she added, “highlights how little has actually been agreed upon yet and what an enormous gap has to be addressed in a short period of time.”她补充说，这种公开分歧“突显出目前实际达成一致的内容何其有限，以及短时间内需要弥合的鸿沟有多大”。In fact, there were elements of truth in both what Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance were arguing, and in the Iranian rebuttal. And dissecting the differences helps explain why this negotiation is likely to be painful — and long.事实上，特朗普和万斯的说法各有一定依据，伊朗的反驳亦是如此。仔细分析这些差异有助于解释为何这场谈判很可能既痛苦又漫长。Despite Iranian denials, inspections were a topic of discussion at the negotiations in Switzerland over the weekend, two officials familiar with the talks said. The idea under consideration would grant the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s nuclear inspection arm, broad powers to inspect just about any suspect site on short notice. It revives ideas that were being discussed in February, in Geneva, when the Iranians and the Americans were meeting Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, and Steve Witkoff, his special envoy, before the negotiations broke off when Mr. Trump ordered the attack on Iran.两名熟悉谈判情况的官员表示，尽管伊朗方面否认，但检查问题确实是上周末瑞士谈判中的讨论议题之一。正在考虑的一项方案是授予联合国国际原子能机构广泛权力，使其能在短时间内对几乎任何可疑地点进行检查。这实际上恢复了今年2月日内瓦谈判时曾讨论过的一些设想——当时伊美双方的谈判代表正在与总统的女婿库什纳及特使维特科夫会面，但随后谈判因特朗普下令对伊朗发动袭击而中断。At the Swiss resort this past weekend, the secretary general of the I.A.E.A., Rafael Mariano Grossi, was in the hallways and negotiating rooms talking to each side, describing what kind of access his inspection teams would need to assure no nuclear fuel was being diverted to weapons projects, according to diplomats who were familiar with the discussions. The Iranians appeared to agree to the concept, but did not want to agree to dates or details until other parts of the accord — including when they would have access to billions of dollars in frozen funds — were worked out.据熟悉讨论情况的外交人士透露，上周末在瑞士的度假村，国际原子能机构总干事格罗西穿梭于走廊和谈判室与双方分别沟通，阐述其核查团队需要何种程度的接触权限才能确认没有核燃料被转移用于武器项目。伊朗方面似乎接受了这一原则，但在协议其他部分——包括何时能够获得数十亿美元被冻结资金——尚未确定之前，不愿就时间表和具体细节作出承诺。So when Mr. Vance declared on Monday that Tehran had agreed to allow I.A.E.A. inspectors into the sites, calling it “the first step” toward ensuring that Iran did not obtain a nuclear weapon, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, immediately pushed back, saying that there were no plans to allow inspectors access to facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo, all of which the United States bombed a year ago. And, in fact, there is no imminent plan.因此，当万斯周一宣称德黑兰已同意允许国际原子能机构进入这些核设施检查，并称这是确保伊朗无法获得核武器的“第一步”时，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃立即予以反驳，表示没有计划允许核查人员进入伊斯法罕、纳坦兹和福尔多等设施——这些都是一年前遭美国轰炸的地点。事实上，目前确实不存在任何即将实施的检查计划。That prompted Mr. Trump to say on Tuesday that if there were no inspections, there was no accord. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was a little more careful.这促使特朗普周二表示，没有核查就没有协议。国务卿鲁比奥的措辞则显得更为谨慎。“I don’t know why they have to say the things they say,” Mr. Rubio told reporters in Abu Dhabi, where he was beginning a tour of the Gulf states, trying to drum up support for the deal with Iran. He noted the complexity of Iran’s internal politics and said: “I guess they’ll navigate it. But we know what they agreed to do, and now they’ll either do it or they won't.” Mr. Trump, he said, “will have some decisions to make.”“我不明白他们为什么非得说那些话，”鲁比奥在阿布扎比对记者表示，他正在那里开启对海湾国家的访问，试图为与伊朗的协议争取支持。他提到伊朗内部政治的复杂性，并表示：“我想他们会想出应对办法的。但我们知道他们同意了什么，现在就看他们究竟做还是不做。”他说，特朗普“将不得不做出一些决定”。Richard Nephew, who was the lead sanctions expert on the U.S. negotiating team that reached the 2015 nuclear accord, said of the current talks, “They’re trying to do this all very quickly and it still feels a bit slapdash.” That haste, he said, comes from the urgency to reopen shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the risk of Mr. Trump growing impatient with his envoys if they do not deliver tangible progress fast enough.曾担任2015年核协议美方谈判团队首席制裁专家的理查德·内菲休在谈到当前谈判时说：“（他们）试图以极快速度推进，但整体感觉仍有些仓促草率。”他表示，这种仓促背后既有尽快重开霍尔木兹海峡航运的紧迫压力，也有另一层原因：特使们如果不能足够快地取得实质性进展，特朗普可能会对他们失去耐心。The open contradictions are a sign that the two sides “fundamentally disagree with each other and they’re trying to paper over it,” said Mr. Nephew, now a senior research scholar at Columbia University and a former official in the Obama and Biden administrations.现任哥伦比亚大学高级研究学者、曾在奥巴马和拜登政府任职的内菲休表示，这种公开矛盾表明双方“在根本问题上仍存在分歧，他们正试图掩饰这一点”。Posturing is all part of the process, of course. But the question here is whether a succession of such public disputes will ultimately sink the whole venture — which would be fine with many in the United States and Tehran who have criticized the deal.当然，摆姿态本来就是谈判过程的一部分。但问题在于，此类公开争执接连不断最终是否会葬送整个谈判进程——这对美伊两国众多批评这份协议的人来说或许正合心意。Iranian diplomats face a treacherous domestic terrain, with hard-line factions who oppose any engagement with the United States, and a supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has stated that he did not agree with signing the initial deal with the United States. For that reason, they have an incentive to downplay or deny any concessions claimed by the American side.伊朗外交官面临艰难的国内局势，强硬派反对与美国进行任何接触，哈梅内伊也曾表示，他并不赞成与美国签署最初的那份协议。因此，他们有动机淡化或否认美国方面所宣称的任何让步。But Mr. Vance has also made claims that are difficult to verify or that go beyond the text of the signed agreement.但万斯也提出了一些难以核实或超出已签署协议文本内容的说法。For instance, the vice president said on Monday that if Iranian assets were to be unfrozen, American and Qatari officials would have approval over the process, and the money would be used to buy American farm products.例如，副总统周一表示，如果伊朗资产获得解冻，美国和卡塔尔官员将对整个流程拥有审批权，而这些资金将用于购买美国农产品。But Iranian officials have repeatedly batted down the idea that Iran is required to spend any of its unfrozen funds on American agricultural goods, or that there would be non-Iranian control over how the money is spent. Iran’s central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, said in an interview published on Monday in Tasnim, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that Iran had “no obligation” to buy American farm products under the signed memorandum.但伊朗官员一再否认伊朗必须将任何解冻资金用于购买美国农产品，也否认外国方面将控制资金使用方式。伊朗央行行长赫马提周一在与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队关系密切的媒体塔斯尼姆通讯社发表的采访中表示，根据已签署的备忘录，伊朗“没有义务”购买美国农产品。His wording, however, left open the possibility of a verbal agreement between the U.S. and Iranian sides to that effect.然而，他的措辞并未排除美伊双方就此达成口头协议的可能性。On Tuesday, Mr. Baghaei, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, did not rule out Iran’s purchasing American farm exports with its frozen funds. But he said the decision would be up to Iran.周二，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃没有排除伊朗利用解冻资金购买美国农产品的可能性。但他说，最终决定权在伊朗自己手中。“Regarding Iran’s released assets, we will make decisions in whatever way is most beneficial and appropriate for the country,” Mr. Baghaei said. “The important point is that Iran’s frozen assets are now accessible and can be used freely by Iran, in whatever manner it deems appropriate, to procure the goods and supplies needed by the country.”“关于伊朗的解冻资产，我们将以对国家最有利、最合适的方式做出决定，”巴加埃说。“重要的一点是，伊朗的被冻结资产现在可以动用，伊朗可以自由使用，以任何其认为合适的方式采购国家所需的物资和供应。”The dueling narratives even extended to more minor details, like whether or not Iranian negotiators walked out of talks in response to a threat by Mr. Trump to resume bombing their country if it closed the Strait of Hormuz.这种相互矛盾的说法甚至延伸到了更为细枝末节的问题上，比如伊朗谈判代表是否曾因特朗普威胁若伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡就恢复轰炸而退出谈判。Mr. Vance said on Monday that diplomats continued negotiating well past 1 a.m. despite threats by the Iranians to walk out. But Mr. Baghaei said that after Mr. Trump’s threat, Iranian diplomats refused to meet directly with the Americans, and instead exchanged messages through mediators.万斯周一表示，尽管伊朗方面以退出谈判相威胁，外交官们仍坚持谈判至凌晨一点以后。但巴加埃表示，特朗普发出威胁后，伊朗外交官拒绝与美方直接会面，转而通过调解方传递信息。Shirin Hakim和Leily Nikounazar对本文有报道贡献。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。Yeganeh Torbati是时报伊朗记者。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。