Gold: Sell rallies, respect 3,890 — Bias: Bearish (short / sell)GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAlpha-Signal-Network👁️ What I'm seeing Gold has been in a clean daily downtrend since the Feb all-time high (~5,559) — a stair-step of lower highs (5,300 → 4,800 → 4,800) and lower lows. Today price is down ~1.6%, knifing below the $4,150 floor that physical buyers defended all of last week. Price now trades below every major moving average, ADX confirms a strong established trend, and RSI (~39) shows momentum still has room before oversold. This is not a market trying to bottom — it's a market losing its last shelf. ⚖️ Why it matters The driver is the Fed, not gold's safe-haven story. After Chair Warsh's June meeting, 9 of 19 members project a 2026 rate hike, the median 2026 funds rate was lifted to 3.8%, and December hike odds are now above 89%. A firmer dollar + rising real-yield expectations are the single most reliable headwind for gold — and the Iran–US peace progress has trimmed the geopolitical premium that was propping it up. The longer-term bull case (central-bank buying, bank targets of $4,900–6,300) is real, but it's a 2026 year-end story, not a this-week story. 🔮 What to expect next — the PCE fork (Thu, Jun 25) Base case: price drifts toward 3,890 into Thursday's Core PCE (alongside final Q1 GDP + jobless claims). 3,890 (June low + fib pivot) is the decision point: 🔴 Hot PCE (the skewed risk): daily close below 3,890 → 3,557, then 3,423. 🟢 Soft PCE: relief bounce into 4,150–4,343 resistance, which I'd sell — it's a lower high, not a reversal. 🚫 Invalidation A daily close back above 4,343 flips me bullish toward the 4,725 (50% fib). Until then, every bounce is a selling opportunity. Day Chart Long term view 🎯 Levels Resistance: 4,343 / 4,150 · Pivot: 3,890 · Targets: 3,557 → 3,423 Not financial advice — my own analysis. Manage risk; size for a stop above 4,343.