EURUSD - Wave (c) Confirmed After Breaking 1.141...EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDIntermarketEdgeFX2026EURUSD - Wave (c) Confirmed After Breaking 1.141, a 13-Month DXY High and PMI Beat Push Euro Toward 1.119 | 24 June 2026 Reference Data | 24 Jun 2026, 12:54 GMT+7 EURUSD 1.1370 | DXY 101.476 (13-month high) US10Y 4.490% | DE10Y 2.920% (pipeline 2.99% stale) | DE-US Spread: -1.570% (widened) Real Yield US: 0.290% = 4.490% minus CPI 4.2% ECB: 2.00% neutral (pipeline 2.50% outdated) | Fed: hold + projected hike later 2026 US PMI Mfg Flash Jun: 55.7 vs 54.7 expected (beat) | VIX 19.40 Data Quality: Pipeline CPI US 2.4% stale (actual 4.2%, real yield 0.290%). Pipeline DE10Y 2.99% stale (actual 2.920%), widening DE-US to -1.570%. Pipeline ECB 2.50% outdated (actual 2.00% neutral). Pipeline Fed outdated. L0 | Regime Last week 1.141 was the line. It broke. Wave (c) is confirmed and accelerating. Every channel leans bearish. There is no divergence. The confirmation. Last week's analysis: "The bearish thesis is confirmed if EURUSD closes below 1.141." Price broke through. Now at 1.1370. Wave (c) is no longer a scenario -- it is the base case. What changed since last week. → DXY climbed to 101.476 (13-month high, from 99.4 pre-FOMC). → US PMI Mfg 55.7 (beat 54.7) -- the economy is strong, the hike case is intact. → Risk-off: VIX 19.40, NAS -3.1% on chipmaker/tech slump. → DE-US spread widened to -1.570% (DE10Y fell to 2.920%). Regime label: Wave (c) Confirmed, High Bear. Target 1.119 then 1.079-1.073. L1 | Driver Stack Bear EURUSD (all channels aligned): → DXY 13-month high. Euro = 57.6% of DXY; direct inverse pressure. → US PMI beat 55.7. Strong economy reinforces the hike case. → Risk-off. VIX 19.40, NAS -3.1%. Haven flows into the dollar. → DE-US spread widened -1.570%. German yields falling, US holding high. → Wave (c) confirmed below 1.141, sub-wave 3 running. Bull EURUSD (minimal): → ECB neutral at 2.00%, not cutting further. But Vujcic: "haven't discussed the neutral rate" -- no direction, no catalyst. L2 | Macro US side: FOMC hawkish confirmed. DXY 13-month high. PMI Mfg 55.7 beat. Real yield +0.290%. M2 +1.1% m/m. The economy is strong, the Fed has grounds to hike. Euro side: ECB 2.00% neutral. Vujcic: "haven't discussed neutral rate." DE10Y fell to 2.920% -- weak Eurozone growth expectations. DE-US spread -1.570%, carry tilting dollar more than last week. Risk: VIX 19.40. NAS -3.1%. "Stocks fall as chipmakers and tech slump on rate bets." Haven dollar strengthens; euro faces dual pressure. L3 | HTF Structure (D1) Wave (c) confirmed with clear internal sub-waves: → Large: (5) top ~1.21, ABC correction: (a) ~1.135, (b) ~1.192, (c) running → Inside (c): sub-1 ~1.157, sub-2 bounce, sub-3 running (~1.137), sub-4 pending, sub-5 target Current position: 1.1370, in sub-wave 3, below the 1.141 confirmation. Key levels: → Already broken: 1.141 (confirmation) → Nearby support: 1.13505 → Sub-wave 5 target: 1.11904 (~1.119) → Deeper: 1.11344 then 1.07975-1.07325 (green box) → Invalidation: above ~1.192 → Near warning: reclaim 1.141 L4 | Intermarket Cross-Check DXY 101.476 (13-month high) -- the direct inverse. Euro = 57.6% weight; tight correlation. GBPUSD 1.3196, AUDUSD 0.6914, USDCAD 1.4217, USDJPY 161.596 -- all confirm broad strength. DE-US -1.570% -- carry widened vs last week (-1.51%). German yields down, US holding. VIX 19.40 -- risk-off, haven flows into dollar. Silver -5.4% -- commodities weak. No divergence. Every intermarket channel bearish. L5 | Event Risk ALREADY OCCURRED: Hawkish FOMC. PMI Mfg 55.7 beat. DXY 13-month high. ECB Vujcic neutral. THIS WEEK: US data (consumer confidence, durable goods, GDP revision). Strong data reinforces DXY and presses EURUSD. A surprise weak print triggers a sub-wave 4 bounce. Scenario matrix: → Sub-wave 3 continues, then 4 bounce, then sub-5 to 1.119. Probability: 45% → Strong data + risk-off, accelerates through 1.119 to 1.079-1.073. Probability: 25% → Surprise weak data, sub-4 bounces to 1.145-1.150, resumes lower. Probability: 20% → Reclaim 1.141, tests 1.165, reassess. Probability: 10% L6 | Conviction Bear EURUSD factors: DXY 13-month high, 1.141 broken, PMI beat, DE-US widened, risk-off, positive real yield, no ECB catalyst. Bull EURUSD factors: ECB neutral (minimal), sub-wave 4 bounce pending (technical only). Aggregate conviction: High Bear. Upgraded from Medium-High. The 1.141 confirmation is broken. Wave (c) runs with clear sub-waves. Every channel aligned, no divergence. Target: sub-wave 5 at 1.119. Deeper: 1.079-1.073. Invalidation: 1.192. L7 | Time Horizon 24 to 48 hours: Sub-wave 3 running. Support 1.13505. Sub-wave 4 may intervene but won't reverse. 1 to 2 weeks: Sub-wave 5 to 1.119, deeper 1.113. US data + DXY trajectory. Range: 1.119-1.150. 1 to 3 months: Deep projection 1.079-1.073 if momentum sustains. Thesis holds while DE-US wide and Fed hawkish. Invalidation: 1.192. L8 | Invalidation Bear thesis fails if: → Daily close above ~1.192 (wave b top). Warning: reclaim above 1.141. Wave (c) confirmed: → Price below 1.141 (done). Target 1.119 then 1.079-1.073 The tell: 1.141 broke. The confirmation level from last week is now resistance. Every channel aligned. This is not a debate anymore. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. All levels and scenarios are analytical frameworks based on publicly available data. Past structure does not guarantee future outcomes. #EURUSD, #EUR, #USD, #DXY, #FOMC, #Fed, #Warsh, #ECB, #Euro, #DollarIndex, #ElliottWave, #RateDifferential, #Macro, #IntermarketAnalysis, #Forex