BTCUSD Bearish Setup: Preferred Short From $63,700 With HawkishBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDAryan_yadav2612My overall BTCUSD bias remains bearish unless price gives a clear bullish reversal confirmation from the Monthly swing-low liquidity zone around $60,000. On the Monthly timeframe, BTCUSD rejected from a strong supply area where a Bearish OB FVG is present. After this rejection, price delivered aggressively toward the Monthly swing-low liquidity near $60,000. This level is very important because price can either sweep liquidity and reverse, or break below it and continue lower. As of now, I do not want to buy BTCUSD without confirmation because the higher-timeframe structure is still bearish and the macro environment is also supporting risk-off sentiment. My preferred short setup is from the $63,700 premium zone, where the Daily/4H Bearish OB FVG is present. However, I will only execute the short if price first sweeps buy-side liquidity, then gives a strong bearish displacement, followed by LTF MSS and a clean retest/rejection from the POI. If price rejects earlier from another valid 4H POI with the same confirmation model, I will adapt and consider that setup as well. The key is not the level alone, but the confirmation: BSL sweep + bearish displacement + LTF MSS. News & Macro Support For Bearish BTCUSD The current global environment is supporting my bearish BTCUSD view. A hawkish Federal Reserve means interest rates may stay higher for longer, or the market may even start pricing the possibility of further tightening. This usually supports the U.S. dollar and creates pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is also facing pressure from ETF outflows. When institutions withdraw money from Bitcoin ETFs, it shows weaker demand from large investors. This reduces upside momentum and supports the sell-side narrative. Another important point is capital rotation. Investors are currently showing more interest in AI and technology-related themes, while crypto demand is weakening. If capital is moving away from Bitcoin and into other high-momentum sectors, BTC may struggle to sustain any bullish move. So, my technical and macro view are aligned: Hawkish Fed → stronger dollar / tighter liquidity ETF outflows → weaker institutional demand Capital rotation into AI → reduced crypto appetite BTC near $60,000 liquidity → major decision point HTF supply rejection → bearish structure still valid Final Trading Plan My main plan is to wait for price to engineer liquidity before selling. I will look for short opportunities if BTCUSD moves toward the $63,700 Daily/4H Bearish OB FVG premium zone and gives confirmation. My confirmation checklist: Buy-side liquidity sweep Bearish displacement LTF MSS Retest of imbalance / OB zone Clean rejection from premium If price breaks and closes below $60,000 without reclaiming it, then bearish continuation becomes stronger. In that case, I will wait for a pullback and sell only after confirmation. I will only consider a bullish reversal if price sweeps the $60,000 Monthly liquidity, closes back above it with strength, and gives strong bullish displacement with three-candle confirmation. Until that happens, my bias remains bearish. BTCUSD is at a major decision point, but based on higher-timeframe rejection, hawkish global conditions, ETF outflows, and weak crypto sentiment, I will continue to focus on sell-side opportunities with proper confirmation.