FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot lastweek as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing ininterest rate expectations. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a ratehike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). There are now 32 bpsof tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 29% chance of a hike in July and60% probability of a move in September.There’s been a slightly dovish repricing in the last couple of days. One ofthe reasons could be the huge selloff in oil prices which have now reachedpre-war levels. The other reason is that the hawkish repricing might havereached a near-term peak and for more we will likely need upside surprises inthe NFP and CPI reports. Although the greenback should remain supported into the data, we mightstart to see some consolidation or even pullbacks if don’t get any meaningfulcatalyst before the key US data.EUR:On the EUR side, the ECB ismaintaining the tightening bias, but all the rate hikes have been alreadypriced in a long time ago. The central bank is now taking a pause at leastuntil September to see how the economic data evolves over the summer. Themarket is pricing in 28 bps of tightening by year-end with the next hike comingin September at the earliest. The Eurozone Flash PMIs thisweek showed unsurprisingly the rate of inflation easing to the slowest pace sinceFebruary, just before the US-Iran conflict began. While economic activityremains subdued, the downward pressure eased and we might see more improvementin the next months. The latest ECB consumer expectations survey has alsoconfirmed that consumers expect lower inflation and better growth in the yearahead. EURUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that EURUSD broke below a key supportzone around the 1.14 handle opening the door for a drop towards the 1.10 levelnext. Right now, we are seeing a retest of the broken support turned resistance.The sellers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above theresistance to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, willwant to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the downwardtrendline next.EURUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the price broke above the minor downward trendline that was defining thebearish momentum. This might be an early signal of a bigger pullback into the1.1525 level next, but the price will need to break above the resistance toopen the door for new highs. EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the currentpullback. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with adefined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers willlook for a break lower to pile back in for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we conclude theweek with the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.