NASDAQ: It’s Not a Double Top… Until 28,196 Breaks

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NASDAQ: It’s Not a Double Top… Until 28,196 BreaksNASDAQ 100 IndexNASDAQ_DLY:NDXThe_STAOne of my biggest technical analysis pet peeves is hearing traders declare “It’s a double top!” the moment price retests a previous high. It isn’t. At that stage, it’s only a potential double top. For a genuine double top to be confirmed, the market must close below the intervening low between the two peaks. In the case of the NASDAQ chart I’m watching, that level sits at 28,196. Until that support is broken on a closing basis, the pattern remains unconfirmed. Does that mean there aren’t reasons for caution? Certainly not. 📉 The long-term chart has reached a major Fibonacci extension around the 30,000 area and has struggled to make meaningful progress above it. 📉 Monthly RSI divergence suggests upside momentum has weakened over time. 📉 Other equity indices, including the S&P 500, are also displaying characteristics that could develop into topping formations. But technical analysis is about evidence, not anticipation. Until the NASDAQ closes below 28,196, there is no confirmed double top. The market deserves the benefit of the doubt until price proves otherwise. Patience and discipline are often more valuable than being first to call a major turning point. This reflects my personal market observations and is not investment or trading advice.