FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot lastweek as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing ininterest rate expectations. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a ratehike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). There are now 32 bpsof tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 29% chance of a hike in July and60% probability of a move in September.There’s been a slightly dovish repricing in the last couple of days. One ofthe reasons could be the huge selloff in oil prices which have now reachedpre-war levels. The other reason is that the hawkish repricing might havereached a near-term peak and for more we will likely need upside surprises inthe NFP and CPI reports. Although the greenback should remain supported into the data, we mightstart to see some consolidation or even pullbacks if don’t get any meaningfulcatalyst before the key US data.AUD:On the AUD side, the RBArecently softened its tone following the rate hike that pushed the cash rate to4.35% with one dissenter voting for keeping rates unchanged. The meetingminutes and recent remarks from policymakers indicate that the central bank isleaning toward a pause as they gauge the economic impact of previous hikes eventhough they maintain a tightening bias. The recent data showed aneasing in headline inflation, but the core measure ticked higher still. Theemployment report was a bit better than the prior month with the unemploymentrate ticking lower. The recent PMIs showed business activity and future sentimentimproving. All in all, the data will likely keep the RBA in a tightening biasbut it’s not urging for further rate hikes. The market is pricing just a 31%chance of another rate hike by year-end.AUDUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that AUDUSD finally reached the majorupward trendline. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with adefined risk below the trendline to position for a pullback into the downward trendline.The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to keeppushing into the 0.6835 level next.AUDUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havea minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likelycontinue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushinginto new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher toincrease the bullish bets into the next trendline around the 0.70 handle.AUDUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here but we can see there’s a strong resistance zone aroundthe 0.6925 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with adefined risk above the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyerswill need the price to break higher to potentially extend the pullback into thenext trendline. The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we conclude theweek with the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.