ASTS (1D) — Extreme oversold testing the key supportAST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class ABATS:ASTSEdoLab-MarketsASTS AST SpaceMobile trades around $65.5 after one of the most vertical corrections in its recent history: from the high at $133.86 the stock has shed close to 51% and today it extends the drop with another red daily candle, opening at $68.76 and piercing down to $63.72 —going to test the correction low at 63.43— before bouncing to close at $65.45. The drop has pushed price below the entire moving average fan on the daily timeframe: the EMA 5 (71.67), EMA 9 (76.88), EMA 200 (78.57), EMA 20 (84.63), EMA 100 (86.55) and EMA 50 (87.82) all sit above price, a clearly deteriorated short-term structure. The momentum engine confirms it: the daily MACD prints its main line at −6.29 below its signal at −2.59 with a −3.70 histogram, and the TRIX keeps the fast line at −3.03 below the slow at −1.70 (histogram −1.33). The contrast comes from the oscillators: the Stochastic has all four periods crushed —the 89 and the 50 at 7.6, the 14 at 3.1 and the 5 at 6.3— and the RSI 2 at 2.42 marks an extreme short-term oversold, with the RSI 14 at 36.1. The daily A/D is the bearish nuance: its fast line at −19.1 has crossed below the slow at 11.8 with a −30.9 histogram, a sign of distribution accelerating in the very short term. Weekly Analysis — Here is the core of the thesis: despite the collapse, the primary trend remains bullish. The weekly EMA stack keeps the bullish order in the long averages, with the EMA 50 (74.30) above the EMA 100 (57.45) and that one well over the EMA 200 (39.92), all in positive slope. Price at $65.5 has lost the EMA 9 (83.83), EMA 20 (84.70) and now also the weekly EMA 50 (74.30), but it still trades clearly above the weekly EMA 100, which stands as the major structural support of the leg. Where there is damage is in mid-term momentum: the weekly MACD crosses with the main line at 1.40 below its signal at 4.06 and a −2.65 histogram, and the TRIX has confirmed a weekly bearish cross, with the fast line at −0.85 losing the slow at +0.09 (histogram −0.95). The weekly A/D keeps its fast and slow lines still in the upper positive zone (55.8 and 69.7), so the underlying accumulation cycle has not broken, it has only lost drive (histogram −13.9). The weekly Stochastic describes the situation well: the 89 period at 50 and the 50 at 41 are in full neutral zone, while the fast 14 (18) and 5 (9) have already entered oversold, and the weekly RSI 2 at 5.89 accompanies the seller exhaustion. 4H Analysis — The tactical timeframe, which in previous sessions tried to stabilize in the 67-70 band, has ended up breaking that range to the downside: price has printed a new low at 63.72 and trades below the entire 4-hour EMA stack (EMA 5 at 67.31, EMA 9 at 69.25, EMA 20 at 73.69, EMA 50 at 82.01). The attempt at a momentum flattening did not hold: the 4-hour MACD reopens its histogram to −0.45 with the main line at −5.19 below its signal at −4.74, and the TRIX has separated its lines again (fast −1.30, slow −1.06, histogram −0.24). The fast oscillators, which had bounced, have rolled back over: the Stochastic 5 is back at 20 and the 14 at 10, while the 89 (2) and the 50 (4) remain pinned at lows, a sign there is no sustained bounce yet. The 4-hour A/D is the bearish side still to repair: fast at −97.8 and slow at −88.0, pinned in the minimum zone of the indicator, with no hint of a turn in the flow. AST SpaceMobile is a satellite communications company building the first direct-to-cellphone broadband network from low Earth orbit. The recent fundamental context is relevant: in June the company successfully launched its next-generation BlueBird 8, 9 and 10 satellites aboard a Falcon 9, nearly doubling the data speed of earlier models, and it has announced the launch of BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 for the first half of August, with the stated goal of having 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. The other side of the scale is financial: the latest quarter posted a loss per share of $0.66 versus the $0.23 expected and revenue of $14.7M well below estimates, and the analyst consensus keeps a cautious rating. It is a very high-beta name where the constellation deployment story and the cash burn coexist, which explains both the vertical rallies and corrections like the current one. Key levels: - Immediate dynamic resistance: daily EMA 5 and EMA 9 (71.67-76.88) - Structural resistance: daily EMA 200 (78.57) and the daily EMA 20/100/50 cluster (84.63-87.82), where the weekly EMA 50 (74.30) also sits - Immediate and decisive support: the correction low at 63.43 (tested today with a 63.72 low) - Psychological support: the round number at 60 - Major structural support: weekly EMA 100 (57.45) - Primary leg support: weekly EMA 200 (39.92) Setup Rating — 2/5 ⭐⭐⭒⭒⭒ (Extreme oversold and an intact weekly primary trend against a clearly bearish short and mid-term structure, with the 4H breaking its range to the downside and no confirmation of a turn) ✅ Positive factors: - Intact weekly primary trend, with the EMA 50/100/200 stacked to the upside and price still above the weekly EMA 100 - Synchronized extreme oversold on the daily (Stochastic with all four periods below 8 and RSI 2 at 2.42) right at the test of the major correction support - Price defended 63.43 on its first test, printing a 63.72 low intraday and bouncing to close above 65 - Weekly A/D still in the upper positive zone, indicating the underlying accumulation cycle has not broken - Underlying fundamental catalyst from the successful deployment of the next-generation BlueBird satellites and the next batch in August ⚠️ Cautions: - The 67-70 4H range has broken to the downside: the stabilization attempt of the previous sessions has failed and price keeps printing lower lows - Price below the entire EMA stack on daily and 4H, a clearly bearish short-term structure - MACD and TRIX bearish across the three timeframes, with a confirmed TRIX bearish cross on the weekly and the 4H histogram reopening - 4-hour A/D pinned in the minimum zone of the indicator, with no hint of a turn in intraday flow - Extreme oversold without confirmation of a turn: price has not yet reclaimed any reference level - Very high volatility name with growing losses and revenue well below expectations in the latest quarter 👍 As long as ASTS defends the correction support at 63.43 on a close —already tested and defended intraday today— the extreme oversold over the bullish primary trend opens the door to a technical bounce back toward the daily EMA 5 and EMA 9 (71.67-76.88) and, above, the weekly EMA 50 gap (74.30), the first serious test for buyers. The cleanest signal would be a turn in the fast Stochastic lines and the 4-hour A/D while price holds the correction low. 👎 A close below 63.43 would leave the short term without a net and open a direct leg toward the round number at 60 and, below it, toward the weekly EMA 100 at 57.45, which is the support that truly defines the health of the primary leg. Only a weekly close below that EMA 100 would put the larger mid-term structure under review.