USDJPY bearish case beyond interventionUSD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYdiegomurphyvBoJ Internal Fracture Overnight, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura pushed back directly against Ueda's wait-and-see stance, arguing the central bank cannot afford to delay and should hike rates every few months until reaching a neutral rate of around 2%. This isn't a fringe view — it signals a growing hawkish faction inside the BoJ that the market is underpricing. Tonight's Catalyst Tokyo CPI prints tonight. Consensus expects headline to rise from 1.4% to 1.7% and Core YoY from 1.3% to 1.6%. A beat here adds significant fuel to Tamura's narrative and increases pressure on Ueda's dovish hold. Even without joint MOF/BoJ FX intervention, JPY looks attractive on fundamentals alone. Japanese economic data has been outperforming expectations relative to peers. JGB yields are also the strongest performer on a z-score basis when benchmarked against their own history — a signal the market is beginning to reprice BoJ terminal rate expectations. US Data: Not as Strong as It Looks April PCE came in at +0.4% MoM / +3.8% YoY vs. 3.5% prior. Core PCE +0.2% MoM / +3.3% YoY. On the surface, hot — but these are May figures, and crude oil has sold off considerably since then, which likely suppresses forward PCE readings. The dollar's muted reaction confirmed the market read it the same way. Rate hike probabilities for 2024 declined on the print. Current Positions Short USDJPY Short CHFJPY Both positions were opened two days ago. Tamura's comments and tonight's Tokyo CPI are the near-term catalysts to watch.