The Round of 32 has officially started, and with Canada making their way through against South Africa last night, it’s now time for Brazil vs Japan and Germany vs Paraguay tonight.There is a lot of pressure on the German side, who will be hoping to advance far further than their group-stage exits of 2018 and 2022.Gustavo Alfaro’s Paraguay team scraped through as the seventh of eight best third-placed finishers on four points and a goal difference of -2 to get to this last 32 game, so Germany are coming in as heavy favourites.That gap in expectation is exactly why the standard 1X2 market does not do a lot for me here. Germany are 3/10 to win in 90 minutes, so just backing the favourite outright ties up your stake for a return that barely covers the coffee you’ll need to stay awake for the game, and it ignores the real texture of this tie.The fearsome German front four will be going at a Paraguay block that is built to frustrate and hit back on the break.The value here isn’t just about who wins, it’s in how the game plays out. And the way I read it is Germany peppering a deep lying defence, Florian Wirtz pulling the strings and Paraguay trying to tactically foul their way through it.That’s the bet builder I’ll be creating here on Betfred, so check out how it lines up below!Germany vs Paraguay match detailsDate: Monday, June 29, 2026Kick-off: 9:30pm BSTVenue: Gillette Stadium (Boston Stadium), Foxborough, Massachusetts, USACompetition: FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 32TV channel: BBC One / BBC iPlayerOur 11/1 bet builder: Germany win, Wirtz assist, Cubas cardedI can easily see Germany dominating the ball and pinning Paraguay deep. Wirtz will be drifting into the half-spaces and unpicking a packed defence with the kind of pass that’s been his calling card all tournament.The Paraguay midfield will have no other way to stop the bleeding, and they will start chopping down German runners, with Cubas the man most likely to leave a foot in.Here’s what I’d put together through Betfred:Germany to win – 3/10 with BetfredFlorian Wirtz 1+ assists – 21/10 with BetfredAndrés Cubas to be carded – 19/10 with BetfredCombined, those three prices multiply out to just shy of 11/1. A single-slip Bet Builder may price a touch shorter once the bookmaker applies its correlation adjustment, so just keep that as a rough betting guide if you decide to do this bet builder yourself (as odds are always subject to change).Germany vs Paraguay Bet Builder breakdownGermany to winWhy: Opta’s supercomputer gives Nagelsmann’s men a 54.7% chance of winning inside 90 minutes against Paraguay’s 23.1%, and that feels about right to me. Germany topped Group E with the joint-most goals (10) and joint-most shots on target (22) of any side in the group stage, scoring through seven different players.Paraguay, by contrast, lost 4-1 to a USA team of broadly similar quality to them. The defensive block that frustrated Türkiye has the ability to stop Germany, but I don’t see it lasting against players of Germany’s quality.Stat: Since a 2-0 qualifying defeat in Slovakia in September 2025, Germany have won 11 of 12, with their only loss a 2-1 against Ecuador once top spot was already secured Germany to win at 3/10 with Betfred Florian Wirtz 1+ assistsWhy: Paraguay are going to sit back in that low block and dare Germany to try and break them down, which puts the onus squarely on the players who operate in the middle of the park.Wirtz is the chief among them, as he created Germany’s first goal of the tournament for Felix Nmecha against Curaçao and teed up Leroy Sané against Ecuador, and only three players in the whole group stage (Michael Olise, Bruno Guimarães and Alexander Isak) managed to get more assists.Against a defence this deep it’s all going to be about creating passing routes against a congested backline, and Wirtz has more than enough quality to do so.Stat: Wirtz registered two assists across the group stage and had a hand in all four goals when Germany beat Switzerland 4-3 in March, scoring twice and assisting twice. Bet on Florian Wirtz 1+ assists at 21/10 with Betfred Andrés Cubas to be cardedWhy: Paraguay picked up the joint-most cards of any team in the group stage, seven yellows and a red, and the man holding their midfield together is just a booking waiting to happen in this one for me.Cubas committed 11 fouls across the three group games, at least three more than anyone else at the tournament, yet somehow escaped a single caution. That’s not sustainable against a side that runs at you in the way Germany does.With Wirtz, Musiala and Sané squeezing through the gaps they find in the middle, Cubas is the player that will be forced into cynical, last-ditch challenges to stop the break, and the referee won’t keep waving them away after the first couple.Stat: Cubas collected 12 yellow cards in 31 MLS games for Vancouver last season, and five in 11 before the league broke for the World Cup. A 19/10 price on him being booked looks generous given how he plays. Bet on Andrés Cubas to be carded at 19/10 with Betfred How to place this Germany vs Paraguay Bet BuilderOpen the Betfred app and search for the Germany vs Paraguay match, then head into the Bet Builder tab rather than the standard match markets.Add Germany in the match-result section, find Wirtz under player assists, and select Cubas in the player-to-be-carded market. Each pick drops into your slip and the app updates the combined price as you go.Before you confirm, read the slip back leg by leg, it’s really easy to tap the wrong player in a busy card market, and decide your stake.Plus, you shouldn’t just take the first number you see, make sure that you open a second book or two and compare the combined Bet Builder price, because multi-leg odds can vary by a point or more between operators, and that difference really compounds across three legs.Stats that matter for your betSupports Germany to win: Germany have lost just one of their last 12 matches, and that was a meaningless 2-1 to Ecuador with top spot already wrapped up.Supports Wirtz 1+ assists: Wirtz finished the group stage as one of only four players with more chances created and assists for his nation, and Paraguay’s deep block hands the playmaker the kind of game he eats up.Supports Cubas to be carded: Cubas racked up a tournament-high 11 fouls in the group stage without a single booking, a run that screams correction against German runners.Defensive and team-news context: Paraguay are without suspended midfielder Diego Gómez, their primary corner and penalty taker, while Sunderland’s Omar Alderete is a doubt because of his knee, thinning out a side that has scored just twice all tournament.Why we are backing this bet builderBecause Germany have the better players in every attacking area, they’ll dominate the ball and force Paraguay into a deep, narrow block at the back.Because Paraguay will have to defend that deep, the game opens up for a between-the-lines creator, and Wirtz is the one most likely to find the killer pass.Because Paraguay can’t live with German transitions on quality alone, their midfield will probably have to resort to fouling, with Cubas, their most reckless tackler, first in the firing line. Germany does A, Paraguay reacts with B, and C follows.That’s why I’d rather build this story than slap a fiver on a blunt over-2.5 line. So this is roughly 11/1 for a sequence I can easily see happening tonight.It’s worth bearing in mind though that Wirtz has endured a difficult first season at Liverpool and has been slightly off his best in the US, so the assist leg carries the genuine risk here.Cubas has somehow managed to avoid getting a card during group stage, so it’s bound to happen now.Paraguay have kept two clean sheets and ground out a longest-in-World-Cup-history scoreless knockout run, five games, so I don’t expect this to be a cricket score either.Germany vs Paraguay oddsGermany win – 3/10 with BetfredDraw – 18/5 with BetfredParaguay win – 8/1 with BetfredThese World Cup odds are correct at the time of writing and will likely move before kick-off, so always check the live price before you stake.For more markets and the latest promotions, our World Cup 2026 betting offers page is absolutely worth a look!Germany vs Paraguay match prediction and line-upsPrediction: Germany 2-0 ParaguayI expect this to be a tighter game than the gap in quality suggests, with Paraguay’s block holding for a spell, but Germany’s superior squad depth will really tell in the final third.Nagelsmann can throw on Deniz Undav, three goals off the bench already this tournament, to break a stubborn defence in the closing 20 minutes, and that’s a luxury Alfaro simply doesn’t have on his bench, which has massively influenced my betting tips for this one.Germany predictions: Germany are likely to start with a 4-2-3-1 formation. They’ll need to try and create space just in front of the penalty area, and they’ll hope the 3 behind the striker will provide the creativity.Antonio Rüdiger is nailed on to start alongside Jonathan Tah after Nico Schlotterbeck’s tournament-ending injury, Nathaniel Brown will likely start at left back, Aleksandar Pavlović and Nmecha will likely take up the central slots while Musiala, Sane and Wirtz float behind Kai Havertz.Predicted XI: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rüdiger, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlović; Sané, Musiala, Wirtz; HavertzParaguay predictions: Paraguay are going to be defending for the majority of this, so a back five wouldn’t shock me in a 5-3-2. Miguel Almirón will be returning from his one-match ban to lead the counter attack, but losing the aforementioned Diego Gómez means they lose their biggest threat from set pieces.Beyond that I’m expecting Enciso to carry the side in the middle of the park when they do get the odd chance, and veteran Gabriel Ávalos to lead the line in their toughest game of this tournament yet.Predicted XI: Gill; Cáceres, G. Gómez, Velázquez, Alderete, Alonso; Almirón, Cubas, Galarza; Enciso, ÁvalosWorld Cup 2026: More from talkSPORTWorld Cup 2026 Betting offersWorld Cup 2026 Betting tips and predictionsWorld Cup 2026 AI predictionsWorld Cup 2026 Betting guideWorld Cup 2026 Top goalscorer oddsEngland to win World Cup 2026 oddsWorld Cup 2026: Best young player oddsAbout the authorDean EtheridgeDean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. 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