MICHAEL D. SHEAR, MEGAN SPECIA2026年6月24日2016年6月伦敦的一场“脱欧”集会。脱离欧盟的提案以微弱优势通过。 Adam Ferguson for The New York TimesA decade ago, British voters went to the polls with a singular image fresh in their minds: a ubiquitous red bus, the hallmark of the Brexit campaign, imploring residents of the once sprawling empire to “take back control” by severing ties to Europe.十年前，英国选民走向投票站时，脑海中挥之不去的是一个鲜明画面：那辆随处可见的红色大巴——脱欧阵营的标志性道具——呼吁这个曾经疆域广阔的帝国的居民通过切断与欧洲的联系来“夺回控制权”。By a slim margin on June 23, 2016, Britons voted to leave the European Union. The people, politicians and businesses of the United Kingdom have been reckoning with the consequences of that decision ever since. Trade, travel, work, study, taxes, borders, the price of groceries, national pride — almost no part of life escaped untouched by the Brexit referendum in the 10 years since the votes were cast.2016年6月23日，英国人以微弱多数投票决定脱离欧盟。自此，英国民众、政界和企业一直在思索这一决定的后果。贸易、旅行、工作、留学、税收、边境、食品价格、民族自豪感——公投过去十年，几乎生活的每个角落都未能幸免。On Monday, the forces of Brexit claimed their latest political victim, when Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation, becoming the sixth British leader since the referendum whose tenure was cut short. While he made unforced errors, he was also felled by a series of challenges established long before he arrived in office.周一，脱欧力量产生了最新一位政治牺牲品：首相基尔·斯塔默宣布辞职，成为公投以来第六位提前结束任期的英国领导人。他有过“非受迫性失误”，但击倒他的还有他上任前早已埋下的诸多挑战。The economy is sluggish, a condition economists attribute to the effects of severing ties with Europe, along with the enduring consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis, which drove up government debt, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Opportunities to work and live abroad are more limited. Travel is frustrating. Trade with Europe has continued but at a lower level, with British exports to the bloc down about 12 percent, according to the Centre for European Reform, a research group.经济增长迟滞——经济学家将此归因于“与欧洲断链的后果”、推高政府债务的2008年全球金融危机余波及新冠疫情。赴海外工作与生活的机会更为有限；出行变得烦琐；与欧洲的贸易持续但水平下降——据欧洲改革中心数据，英国对欧盟出口下降约12%。Immigration from outside the European Union went way up for a time, after the then-Conservative government tried to fill worker shortages in health care and home care, and foreign students were welcomed by cash-poor British universities. But after the rise caused voter anger, the government introduced new restrictions on migration, and it has since fallen sharply.来自非欧盟国家的移民一度大幅上升——当时保守党政府试图填补医护与居家照护的“劳动力短缺”，资金拮据的英国大学也欢迎外国学生。但移民激增引发选民愤怒后，政府出台了新的限制措施，此后非欧盟移民急剧下降。Perhaps no part of British society was changed more by Brexit than its political landscape, which has fractured into a chaotic tug of war in which no party seems able to satisfy the demands of an angry and disillusioned public for long.或许英国社会中没有任何领域比政治版图受脱欧改变更彻底——政坛已分裂为混乱的拉锯战，似乎没有任何政党能长期满足愤怒且感到幻灭的公众的诉求。“It is political instability that has best characterized the past decade,” Jill Rutter, a senior fellow at Britain’s Institute for Government, wrote in “Brexit at 10,” a report published on Tuesday. “There is a major uphill task facing any government in restoring faith in the capacity of the state to deliver.”“过去十年的典型特征是政治不稳定，”英国政府研究所高级研究员吉尔·拉特在周二发布的报告《脱欧十周年》中写道，“任何政府若要恢复公众对国家施政能力的信心，都面临艰巨挑战。”The revolving door at Downing Street began when David Cameron, who called the referendum, resigned after the result. Each prime minister that followed has struggled with the consequences of Brexit: dimmed economic prospects, the fact that it bestowed no special benefits from the so-called special relationship with the United States, and that it has failed to restore any kind of British supremacy around the world.唐宁街的“旋转门”始于发起公投但在结果出炉后辞职的戴维·卡梅伦。其后每位首相都受困于脱欧后果：经济前景黯淡；未从所谓“英美特殊关系”中获得特别红利；也未能恢复任何形式的“大英全球霸权”。“For all the competence questions about Keir Starmer, the challenges that he has faced as a prime minister come back to the economy not having grown since 2019,” said Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, a research institute. Speaking at a conference hosted by U.K. in a Changing Europe, another research group, on Tuesday, she said: “The extent to which that is driven by Brexit is also fundamental.”“抛开基尔·斯塔默个人执政能力争议不谈，他作为首相面临的挑战归根结底在于——自2019年以来经济就没有增长过，”决议基金会首席执行官露丝·柯蒂斯说。她在周二由“变化欧洲中的英国”研究组主办的会议上表示：“其中有多大程度是脱欧驱动的，同样是核心问题。”The years of political turmoil since have had real-world consequences for a country desperate for long term solutions to its problems.多年政治动荡对一个迫切需要长远解决方案的国家产生了实实在在的影响。The turnover of prime ministers “prevents big ambitious reforms from being executed,” said Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “It’s like if you were trying to write a novel and every six months your P.C. would wipe the hard drive and you had to just scramble together all the notes you had and try to do it again.”“首相频繁更替令宏大的改革计划无从执行，”曼彻斯特大学政治科学教授罗布·福特说。“好比你写小说，每六个月电脑就把硬盘格式化，你得把零散笔记拼凑起来重写。”He added: “The deep stuff just doesn’t ever really get addressed, because no one’s really in post long enough to get to that.”“深层结构性问题永远得不到真正处理，因为没人待得够久去推进它，”他还说。Andy Burnham, the popular former mayor of Greater Manchester who looks almost certain to succeed Mr. Starmer, will be the next in line to confront the country’s post-Brexit challenges. A member of Mr. Starmer’s Labour Party, he is seen by many as ideologically similar, but more charismatic and better able to tell a compelling story to voters.目前看来，人气颇高的大曼彻斯特前市长安迪·伯纳姆几乎确定将接替斯塔默，因而将是下一位须直面脱欧后挑战的人。同属工党的他被认为意识形态与斯塔默相近，但更具个人魅力，更善于向选民讲述动人叙事。Whether that will be enough to overcome the Brexit ruptures and the political instability is unclear.这是否足以化解脱欧造成的裂痕与政治动荡尚不明朗。The public he helped persuade is less certain.就连他当年曾参与说服的那部分公众也不再那么笃定。Recent polling shows that more people would vote to rejoin the European Union than would want to stay separate if another referendum were held. That includes a significant shift among people who voted to leave 10 years ago.近期民调显示，若再举行公投，更多人愿投票“重新加入”欧盟而非继续脱离——包括相当一部分十年前投了脱欧的人。2016年，时任英国独立党领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇在英国投票决定脱欧后于伦敦发表讲话。 Adam Ferguson for The New York TimesLuke Tryl, the U.K. director for More in Common, a British research group, said that recent surveys of public opinion on Brexit showed that many people had changed their minds.英国研究机构More in Common英国总监卢克·特赖尔表示，近期民调显示，许多人对脱欧改变了看法。“A clear majority think that Brexit has been a failure, and even Leave voters are split on whether Brexit has been a success or a failure,” he said. “They don’t think that the U.K. can defend itself. They also have lost faith in the U.S. as an ally of the U.K.”“明显多数人认为脱欧是失败的，即便是脱欧选民也对‘成功还是失败’意见分裂，”他说。“他们认为英国无力独自防卫，也对美国作为盟友失去信心。”That in turn is making people more open — if still cautious — about what it would mean to rejoin the European Union, he said. In the More in Common study, 48 percent of Britons said they would vote to “rejoin” Europe, while only 28 percent said they would vote to stay outside.他说，这反过来使公众对“重新加入欧盟意味着什么”的问题持更开放的态度——虽然仍存疑虑。在More in Common的研究中，48%英国人表示会投“重新入欧”，仅28%表示会继续选择留在欧盟外。That might eventually propel the country’s political leaders toward a new vote. In an interview with ITV News on Monday, Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, called Brexit the “biggest act of economic self-harm” perpetrated by any country.这或许最终会推动政治领导人走向新公投。伦敦工党市长萨迪克·汗周一接受ITV新闻采访时称，脱欧是“一个国家犯下的最大规模经济自残行为”。“What we should do is recognize that at some stage we’re going to join the European Union again,” he said. “Why delay the inevitable and suffer in the meantime, economically, socially, and culturally?”“我们应承认，英国终有一天会重新加入欧盟，”他说。“何必拖延不可避免的事，在此期间还要在经济、社会和文化上遭受损失？”But most politicians, even those who agree with Mr. Khan, are wary of risking the wrath of the portion of the British public who voted to Leave, and who still view a closer relationship with Europe as a final surrender of the nationalistic pride they already feel has been lost.但多数政客即便认同汗的看法，也担心激怒当年投票脱欧的选民，他们仍将深化对欧洲的关系视为对其已然失落的民族自尊的“彻底投降”。Politicians like Mr. Burnham, who supports improved relations with Europe, are nervous about Reform and its voters, as well as the response of a right-wing tabloid news media that campaigned for Brexit and will pounce on any whisper of a rapprochement.像伯纳姆这样支持改善对欧关系的人也对改革党及其选民心存顾忌，更担心曾力挺脱欧的小报媒体见到任何与欧洲修好的企图都会群起而攻之。Anand Menon, a professor at King’s College London and director of U.K. in a Changing Europe, said on Tuesday that he was very skeptical that there was any political appetite for an immediate push to rejoin the European Union, despite the downsides of Britain’s withdrawal.伦敦国王学院教授、“变化欧洲中的英国”主任阿南德·梅农周二表示，尽管脱欧弊端显现，他对政界是否有意愿立即推动重新入欧“非常怀疑”。周六在伦敦举行的一场支持重新加入欧盟的集会。“If you’re the prime minister and someone came up to you and said, ‘Prime minister, I’ve got a really good idea, which is you should reopen a toxic debate, go through five, six years of really painful negotiation and domestic angst in order that we can reap significant economic benefits for your successor,’” Mr. Menon said, “I’m just not aware of a politician who would say ‘That sounds like a great idea.’”“假如你是首相，有人凑过来说：‘首相，我有个绝妙主意——咱们重开这场有毒辩论，熬过五六年痛苦谈判和国内撕裂，好让你的继任者享受显著经济利益，’”梅农说。“我真不知道哪个政客会答‘听起来不错’。”Michael D. Shear是《纽约时报》资深记者，报道英国政治、文化，以及全球各地外交议题。Megan Specia常驻伦敦，为时报报道英国、爱尔兰和乌克兰战争新闻。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。