NQ Daily & Potential Double Top Into Semiconductor Weakness E-mini Nasdaq-100 FuturesCME_MINI:NQ1!idbb1The setup NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures on daily) has carved a textbook double top after the strong run off the April low. Two peaks near 30,800–31,000 with the second printing slightly below the first. That's the classic sign of demand fading on the retest. The neckline sits at 28,554 and the reaction low between the peaks. Nothing to act on here yet. Just watch if we get close to the neckline and await the breach. Nothing has triggered. The pattern only activates on a decisive daily close below 28,554 ideally with expanding volume. Price is still ~800 points above that line meandering in the middle of the structure. A wick poke through doesn't count. I want a close and hold. Until then, this is a watch item. Target & confluence The measured move projects to 26,350 and that's the interesting part. This price level lines up with the prior October and March support/resistance shelf and the rising 200-day SMA (26,100 and climbing). Three things stacking in one zone make it a logical place for a move to run to but also a logical place for the broader uptrend to try to resume. Note the 200 SMA is rising into the target, so the longer this takes to trigger, the higher that floor sits. Why it's worth watching now Semis lead the Nasdaq. SOX (SOXX), SMH, and the KOSPI effectively a global semiconductor proxy via Samsung / SK Hynix all rolled over hard from their highs in the same window with 4–6% down days. When the generals weaken alongside the index forming a top the topping thesis gets more coherent. The high conviction tell would be semis losing their own recent swing lows as NQ breaks leadership confirming the move. The veto would be semis pulling a V shape recovery back toward highs while NQ dawdles. Caveats Trend is still up and price is above a rising 200 SMA and structure hasn't broken. This is a deep trough double top (the messy variant) anchored to a single wick low. And those semi charts are stretched well above their own 200-days so the selloff is a first hit off a parabola not a confirmed breakdown. Read this as a potential countertrend swing into support and not a trend-change call. Stats Trigger is daily close below 28,554 Target is 26,350 (measured move + range support + 200 SMA) Invalidation when neckline is refused / push back toward the peaks Watch semis (SOX/SMH/KOSPI) for confirmation