DXY – MonthlyU.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYLapis-ChartIn my view, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is still trading within a long-term ascending channel on the monthly timeframe. After the third touch of the channel's lower boundary, price produced a fake breakdown below the channel but quickly reclaimed it. This type of price action often suggests that sellers failed to maintain control and buyers stepped back into the market. Another important factor is the 200-period EMA on the monthly chart, which is currently acting as dynamic support. As long as price remains above this moving average, I consider the long-term market structure to remain bullish. The 103–105 zone is the most significant resistance area ahead. This region not only represents a major horizontal resistance but also aligns with the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement, creating a strong confluence where I expect the market to show its first meaningful reaction. My primary scenario is for DXY to advance toward the 103–105 resistance zone. If buyers maintain momentum and we see a confirmed breakout above this area, the path could open toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel and potentially higher targets. From a fundamental perspective, several factors continue to support this bullish outlook. First, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting interest rates. Although markets expect rate cuts later this year, the Fed has repeatedly emphasized that inflation must move sustainably toward its 2% target before easing policy. This continues to provide underlying support for the U.S. Dollar. Second, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield remains relatively elevated. Historically, as long as bond yields stay at high levels, the Dollar tends to remain supported. In addition, the latest COT (Commitment of Traders) data does not show any significant institutional exit from long Dollar positions. For now, smart money has not signaled aggressive bearish positioning. Finally, several major institutions, including JPMorgan and Barclays, remain constructive on the Dollar in the short term, although many still expect a weaker Dollar over the medium to long term once the Federal Reserve begins a sustained easing cycle. Overall, both the technical structure and the current macroeconomic backdrop continue to favor a move toward the 103–105 resistance area. The market's reaction there will likely determine whether DXY has enough strength to continue higher or enter a new corrective phase. This is my personal analysis, not financial advice.