Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTMicah Zimmerman, The Motley FoolFri, June 26, 2026 at 10:05 PM GMT+2 6 min readThere is a particular kind of investor mistake that doesn't feel like a mistake while you're making it. You admire a company genuinely. You might like its engineering, its ambition, the degree to which it has embarrassed more complacent competitors, and that admiration quietly migrates into your portfolio. The two things feel related.But they aren't. Respecting what a company has built and believing in its stock price are epistemically distinct judgments, and conflating them is how intelligent people end up holding expensive stories instead of businesses. That distinction is worth keeping in mind as we examine where Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) actually stand.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Image source: Getty Images.As of June 2026, Tesla shares trade around $375, down approximately 16% year to date. Back in April, JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, following first-quarter delivery results, maintained an underweight rating with a $145 price target -- implying more than 60% downside from current levels -- citing a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio north of 180x on what he characterized as shrinking fundamental earnings power. I personally like Brinkman's thesis.The operational backdrop justifies that skepticism. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 3% to $94.8 billion, the first annual revenue decline in the company's public history. Vehicle deliveries dropped 8.6% to 1.64 million units. Net income fell 61% in Q4 2025. Q1 2026 showed a genuine gross margin recovery to 21% -- that's real -- but operating income came in at $940 million on $22.4 billion in revenue, an operating margin of roughly 4.2%. For a company carrying a $1.2 trillion market cap, that number requires extraordinary future assumptions to justify. Not difficult assumptions. Extraordinary ones.Those assumptions -- a dominant Tesla robotaxi network, Optimus humanoid robots at scale, an energy storage business compounding for a decade -- are not impossible. The problem is they aren't priced as possibilities. They're priced as certainties. At 180x trailing earnings, the market has assigned near-zero probability to execution risk, regulatory friction, competitive pressure from Waymo, or the plain fact that Tesla hasn't launched a new core vehicle in six years. The Cybertruck hasn't meaningfully expanded the addressable market. Full self-driving has been "almost ready" for long enough that the phrase has lost informational content.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info