FRANCES ROBLES, DAVID C. ADAMS2026年6月25日哈瓦那一家私营家具公司生产车间里的工人，摄于2024年。 Eliana Aponte for The New York TimesThe Cuban economy is in shambles, power outages can last 30 hours, and the Trump administration, with a figurative gun to Cuba’s head, keeps announcing new ways to deprive the Communist government of much-needed cash.古巴经济陷入瘫痪，停电有时长达30小时，特朗普政府则像是拿枪指着古巴的脑袋，不断宣布新的措施以剥夺这个共产党政府急需的现金。The Cuban government, responding to the country’s worst crisis in modern history, recently announced a sweeping economic restructuring. The package of 176 measures would allow more private enterprise and loosen the Cuban government’s grip on the island’s economic activity.为了应对国家现代史上最严重的危机，古巴政府最近宣布了一项全面的经济重组计划。这项方案包含176项措施，将允许更多私营企业的发展，并放松古巴政府对该岛经济活动的控制。Cuba denies the measures were designed to placate the Trump administration, which is demanding the island adopt wholesale economic and political changes, but few experts accept that denial. Official speeches have stressed the urgent need to resuscitate an ailing economy that is collapsing under decades of centralized rule as well as increased pressure from Washington, while insisting that Cuba will remain a socialist country.古巴否认这些措施是为了安抚要求该国采取彻底经济和政治变革的特朗普政府，但鲜有专家接受这样的说法。官方讲话强调了重振疲软经济的迫切需要——在数十年的中央集权统治以及华盛顿不断增加的压力下，古巴经济正濒临崩溃，同时坚持古巴将仍是社会主义国家。Economists say the blueprint, which was rushed through Cuba’s legislature last week, represents a drastic shift. It’s the first time since the 1959 revolution, which ushered in Communist rule, that the regime is offering to relinquish full control of commerce.经济学家表示，这份上周在古巴立法机构匆忙通过的蓝图代表着一场重大转变。这是自开启共产主义统治的1959年革命以来，该政权首次主动提出放弃对商业的全面控制。But even as Cuba’s government says it will allow private banking and individuals to own more than one business and real estate property, experts are skeptical.但是，尽管古巴政府表示将允许私人银行业务以及个人拥有多家企业和房地产，专家们仍持怀疑态度。A wholesale move toward a system like those in place in Vietnam or China, away from a strictly state-controlled, centrally planned economy toward a flexible, market-driven mixed economy, would be hard to pull off unless the Trump administration eases sanctions.除非特朗普政府放松制裁，否则很难实现向越南或中国那样体制的彻底转变——从严格的国家控制中央计划经济转向灵活的市场驱动混合经济。Some foreign businesses have started pulling out of Cuba because they fear running afoul of recent U.S. rules that make it even more difficult to do business there. For them to come back, more than just Cuba’s regulations would have to change.一些外国企业已经开始撤出古巴，因为他们担心触犯美国最近出台的规定，这些规定使得在古巴做生意变得更加困难。如果要让这些企业重返古巴，光是改变古巴的法规还远远不够。And the Cuban government has a serious credibility problem, experts say. Officials have announced economic changes before, only to pull them back without explanation. Cuba lacks the rule of law and a separation of powers and often fails to pay its bills. It’s a notoriously risky business environment.专家们还表示，古巴政府面临严重的信誉问题。官员们以前也曾宣布过经济变革，结果却在没有解释的情况下将其撤回。古巴缺乏法治和权力分立，且经常拖欠账款，是出了名的高风险商业环境。Some experts likened the ambitious new package of incentives designed to encourage foreign investment in Cuba to a recurring bit from the cartoon “Peanuts”: Lucy trying to sweet talk Charlie Brown into taking another swing at that football.一些专家将旨在鼓励外国在古巴投资的雄心勃勃的新激励方案，比作《花生》漫画中反复出现的桥段：露西试图用甜言蜜语哄骗查理·布朗再去踢那只橄榄球。2019年，古巴纳瓦哈斯的养蜂人。古巴对商业活动监管严格，禁止的行为包括直接向公众销售蜂蜜等。So What Exactly is Cuba Planning to Do?那么，古巴到底打算做什么？The package includes an expansion of the fledgling private sector with greater freedom to import and export without state interference.该方案包括扩大刚刚起步的私营部门，赋予其在没有国家干预的情况下进行进出口的更大自由。• Businesses in Cuba would for the first time be permitted to hire more than 100 employees, a limit meant to prevent the private sector from growing too big. Entrepreneurs would also be allowed to own multiple private businesses, ending a stifling practice and longstanding grievance of the private sector.· 古巴企业将首次获准雇用超过100名员工，此前的限制旨在防止私营部门规模过大。企业家也将被允许拥有多家私营企业，从而结束长期以来令私营部门感到束缚的做法，平息不满。• The changes open the door to private real estate development on the island and propose transforming state-owned businesses into private commercial ventures with shares and equity stakes. It would allow private banks to enter Cuba's once exclusively state-run finance sector.· 这些变化为岛上的私人房地产开发打开了大门，并提出将国有企业转变为拥有股份和股权的私人商业企业。这将允许私人银行进入古巴曾经完全由国家主导的金融领域。• The government also plans to eliminate 70 of 125 prohibited business activities, but did not specify which ones. Businesses are highly regulated in Cuba and government prohibitions are wide ranging; they include buying wholesale, selling honey directly to the public and making orthopedic footwear.· 政府还计划取消125项被禁止的商业活动中的70项，但没有具体说明是哪些项目。在古巴，企业受到高度监管，政府的禁令范围很广，其中包括批发采购、直接向公众出售蜂蜜以及生产矫形鞋。• State-owned properties can now also be sold to national and foreign companies and individuals, including Cubans residing abroad. It even permits fast-food chains to open franchises on the island.· 国有财产现在也可以出售给本国和外国的公司及个人，包括居住在海外的古巴人。它甚至允许快餐连锁店在岛上开设特许经营店。• Acknowledging that its safety net is fraying, the Cuban government wants to shift responsibility for old-age homes and other social welfare programs to private businesses.·古巴政府承认其社会保障体系正在松动，因此希望将养老院和其他社会福利项目的责任转移给私营企业。本月，哈瓦那东部的阿拉马尔的一个私营市场。What do experts say about it?专家们对此有何看法？Most experts say the ideas sound familiar: Economists have been proposing them for decades. Others said it was maybe not too little, but likely too late to rescue the economy or satisfy the United States.大多数专家表示这些想法听起来很熟悉：经济学家几十年来一直在提出这些建议。还有人表示，这些措施或许并非力度不足，但可能为时已晚，既无法拯救经济，也无法满足美国的要求。Experts also believe some measures violate the Cuban Constitution, which enshrines socialism. Economists worry that the Cuban government announced a slew of measures, all at once, without a timeline or a clear path forward of how to implement or finance them.专家们还认为，一些措施违反了将社会主义奉为神圣的古巴宪法。经济学家担心，古巴政府一口气宣布了一系列措施，却未制定时间表，也未明确如何实施或筹措资金的具体方案。“Some of them are quite radical,” said Pedro Monreal, a Cuban economist. “The problem is not so much whether they arrived late or early, but whether it’s feasible — if they can really work.”“其中一些措施相当激进，”古巴经济学家佩德罗·蒙雷亚尔说。“问题不在于它们来得晚还是早，而在于是否可行——它们是否真能起作用。”Daniel Torralbas, a former policy analyst at Cuba’s Ministry of Economy and Planning, said that though many questions remain unanswered, “without a doubt” the changes “are the most profound” the Cuban government has announced since taking power in 1959.古巴经济计划部前政策分析师丹尼尔·托拉尔巴斯表示，尽管许多问题仍悬而未决，但“毫无疑问”，这些变化是古巴政府自1959年掌权以来宣布的“最深刻的”变革。“But that doesn’t mean that they are going to work, nor does it mean they are going to be implemented all at once, nor does it mean they will be successful,” said Mr. Torralbas, who is currently studying in London.“但这并不意味着它们一定会奏效，也不意味着它们会同时实施，更不意味着它们会取得成功，”目前正在伦敦求学的托拉尔巴斯说。Several experts warned that some measures, like opening state assets to private ownership, while unthinkable even a few months ago, could open the door to cronyism.几位专家警告称，一些措施——例如允许私人拥有国有资产——在几个月前还是不可想象的，它们可能会为裙带关系打开大门。Pavel Vidal, a Cuban economist who teaches at Pontificia Universidad Javeriana in Cali, Colombia, said such changes are risky. Without oversight, transparency and a clear legal framework, he said, they could lead to inside dealing.在哥伦比亚卡利的哈维里亚纳天主教大学任教的古巴经济学家帕维尔·维达尔表示，此类变革存在风险。他说，如果没有监督、透明度和清晰的法律框架，它们可能会导致内幕交易。“They can create opportunities for corruption, rent-seeking, and opaque asset transfers to elites with political power or privileged access to information,” Mr. Vidal said. “它们可能为腐败、寻租以及向拥有政治权力或享有信息获取特权的精英进行不透明资产转移创造机会，”维达尔说。上周，一位女性正在收看曼努埃尔·马雷罗总理的电视讲话，他在讲话中向古巴全国人民代表大会提出了一揽子支持市场经济的改革方案。What are Cuban government loyalists saying about it?古巴政府的忠诚支持者对此有何评论？Prime Minister Manuel Marrero bluntly stated that the accumulation of wealth in private hands — for decades a communist taboo in Cuba — would no longer be forbidden. He explicitly recognized “the legitimate growth of the financial and material assets of legal entities and individuals.”总理曼努埃尔·马雷罗直言不讳地表示，财富在私人手中的积累——几十年来一直是古巴的共产主义体制的禁忌——将不再被禁止。他明确承认“法人和个人的金融与物质资产的合法增长”。President Miguel Díaz-Canel added: “If there is no wealth, there is nothing to distribute. If there is no wealth, there is no social justice.”总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔还说：“如果没有财富，就无从分配。如果没有财富，就没有社会正义。”Carlos Luis Jorge Méndez, Cuba’s deputy minister of foreign trade and foreign investment, said the government would cut back on bureaucracy and other obstacles to making deals.古巴外贸和外国投资部副部长卡洛斯·路易斯·豪尔赫·门德斯表示，政府将减少官僚主义，并消除其他阻碍交易开展的障碍。He told a United Arab Emirates newspaper that Cuba was “open for business.”他在接受一家阿拉伯联合酋长国报纸采访时表示，古巴已经“敞开商业大门”。But what about Washington?但是华盛顿方面呢？The U.S. State Department, responding to questions, said in a statement that President Trump would continue to apply pressure to drive much more substantial economic and political overhauls.美国国务院在回应质询时发表声明称，特朗普总统将继续施加压力，以推动更为实质性的经济和政治改革。Mr. Trump, the State Department said, wants to “make Cuba investable” and allow private businesses to grow in ways that will help the Cuban island develop and recover and “give the Cuban people the freedom, dignity and opportunity they deserve.”美国国务院表示，特朗普希望“使古巴具备投资价值”，并允许私营企业以有助于古巴发展和复苏的方式成长，从而“赋予古巴人民他们应得的自由、尊严和机会”。On Tuesday, the State Department announced new sanctions against more Cuban state-run financial businesses, as well as a member of the Castro family.周二，美国国务院宣布对更多古巴国营金融企业以及卡斯特罗家族的一名成员实施新的制裁。“These gradual ‘economic reforms’ are modest, long overdue and ultimately superficial smoke signals from the Cuban regime,” the State Department said.美国国务院表示：“这些渐进式的‘经济改革’规模有限，姗姗来迟，归根结底只是古巴政权释放的表面烟雾弹。”Cuban activists such as the free speech advocate Yoani Sánchez and the dissident José Daniel Ferrer largely agreed, stressing that the lengthy list of changes did not include any mention of political freedom or a multiparty system.言论自由倡导者约阿尼·桑切斯和异见人士何塞·丹尼尔·费雷尔等古巴活动人士在很大程度上同意这一观点，他们强调，这份长长的变革清单中没有提及任何关于政治自由或多党制度的内容。“Cuba doesn’t need stopgap measures,’’ Mr. Ferrer said, “but a profound economic transformation and a complete political transition.” “古巴不需要权宜之计，”费雷尔说。“而是需要深刻的经济转型和彻底的政治过渡。”Frances Robles是时报报道拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的记者。她报道该地区已有25年以上。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。