This is a straight shootout for second place in Group D. The USA have already wrapped up top spot and Turkey are out, so it comes down to Paraguay and Australia in San Francisco, and the way each side needs to play points firmly towards a tight, low-scoring affair.I have been through both teams’ first two games and the numbers, and the value here is all in the cagey markets.Australia need only a draw to go through, holding the better goal difference, while Paraguay must win. Australia will be content to sit in and frustrate, and Paraguay have to chase the game without their suspended creative spark Miguel Almirón.Add in a historically low-scoring rivalry and two defensively-minded sides, and I am expecting very little in the way of goals at Levi’s Stadium.My three favourite bets for this one:Under 1.5 goals – 13/10 with bet365Draw – 5/4 with bet3652 or more Paraguay cards – 11/10 with bet365Paraguay vs Australia head to head overviewDate: Thursday 25 June 2026 (kick-off in the early hours of Friday 26 June UK time)Kick-off: 3am UK timeVenue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, USAWhere to watch: ITV and ITVXReferee: Clement Turpin (France)Last meeting: a 2010 friendly that Australia won 1-0Last 10 matches: the sides have met five times, all friendlies, with Australia unbeaten (two wins and three draws)Favourite to win: Australia, though the draw is the shortest-priced single outcomeParaguay vs Australia predicted lineupsParaguay are without the suspended Almirón after his red card against Turkey, a real blow to their creativity, with Gustavo Alfaro leaning on Matías Galarza and Julio Enciso for invention behind a rugged defence.Australia have Mathew Leckie as a doubt, but the big call is in attack, where Nestory Irankunda, a game-changer off the bench against the USA, is expected to start.Paraguay expected lineup: Gill; Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Alderete, Junior Alonso; Mauricio, Cubas, Diego Gomez, Galarza; Pitta, Enciso.Australia expected lineup: Beach; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Metcalfe, O’Neill, Okon-Engstler, Irankunda; Mohamed Toure.Paraguay vs Australia predictionsParaguay have shown two faces at this tournament. They were thrashed 4-1 by the USA, but then produced a display of pure resilience to beat Turkey 1-0, an early Galarza strike settling it before they spent the entire second half a man down following Almirón’s dismissal.That backs-to-the-wall character sums up Alfaro’s side, who are built on a stubborn, well-drilled defence rather than attacking flair, and now they have lost their most creative player for the game they simply have to win.Australia are cut from similar cloth. An assured 2-0 win over Turkey was followed by a 2-0 defeat to the USA in which they could not break down the hosts, but Tony Popović’s side defend well and, crucially, need only a draw to qualify.I expect them to sit in, stay compact and dare Paraguay to find a way through, which on current evidence will be no easy task.With both teams cautious, the stakes high and Paraguay short of attacking quality, I see a tense, goalless stalemate that takes the Socceroos through. I am going for a 0-0 draw.Paraguay vs Australia betting tipsI have gone for three angles built around a tight, low-scoring game that suits Australia down to the ground. Have a read through my picks below.Goals set to be in short supplyThree of the five previous meetings between these sides ended goalless or 1-0, and everything about this one points the same way.Australia will be happy to defend the draw they need, Paraguay have lost their creative drive in Almirón, and neither side has looked fluent going forward. I am taking the goals line right down. Bet on under 1.5 goals at 13/10 with bet365 Honours even in San FranciscoA draw is enough for Australia, who will set up to frustrate, and Paraguay may simply lack the firepower to break them down without their suspended talisman.With both sides cagey and the rivalry historically tight, a stalemate that sends Australia through and leaves Paraguay agonisingly short looks the likeliest outcome. Bet on the draw at 5/4 with bet365 Paraguay to let frustration boil overForced to chase a must-win game against a deep Australian block, Paraguay are likely to grow frustrated, and this is a physical South American side that already saw Almirón sent off last time out.As the game gets stretched and the clock ticks, I expect them to pick up their share of bookings hunting the goal they need. Bet on 2 or more Paraguay cards at 11/10 with bet365 Paraguay vs Australia latest oddsFind the latest Paraguay vs Australia betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.World Cup 2026 predictionsWe have plenty more World Cup 2026 coverage to get stuck into, with previews, best bets and goalscorer tips across every group, plus predictions from the rest of the football calendar.Find more predictions and betting tips from our expert punters in our match preview overview at our football previews.Important historical facts about Paraguay and Australia for bettingWith the USA already through as group winners and Turkey eliminated, this is a straight shootout for second place, Australia need only a draw thanks to their superior goal difference, while Paraguay must win.The nations have met five times, all in friendlies, with Australia unbeaten in the series, and three of those five games finished goalless or 1-0.Paraguay are back at the World Cup after a 16-year absence, having last appeared in 2010 when they reached the quarter-finals, still their best finish.Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 despite playing the entire second half with ten men following Almirón’s controversial red card, underlining their defensive resilience.World Cup 2026: More from talkSPORTWorld Cup 2026 Betting offersWorld Cup 2026 Betting tips and predictionsWorld Cup 2026 AI predictionsWorld Cup 2026 Betting guideWorld Cup 2026 Top goalscorer oddsEngland to win World Cup 2026 oddsWorld Cup 2026: Best young player oddsAbout the authorDave PotterDave Potter is the founder of GYTO and has a huge following on X. 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